Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212352
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM  CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE NOT
AS CELLULAR...AND MAY NOT DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE 40S.

RETURN FLOW COMMENCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE THIS FEATURE
WILL TRACK. THIS FORECASTED TRACK WOULD BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA (AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). LIMITED
POPS TO A MAXIMUM OF 30 PERCENT SINCE THIS FEATURE WILL BASICALLY
BE PROPAGATING INTO AN UPPER RIDGE/DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL
MAINLY BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS FOR THU THROUGH SAT. SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY
BY SUNDAY BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AREAS WEST OF THE
RED RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AT OR UNDER 10KT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE LOW
IN POTENTIAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...DK





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