Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FROM FOSSTON-MAHNOMEN THROUGH FARGO TO EDGELEY
ND PUSHING EAST. DID CONTINUE WITH POPS FOR SCT RW- THRU THE
EVENING AS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES EAST....MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING BEHIND IT INTO COOPERSTOWN-
GRAND FORKS AREA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LIGHT RAIN IN FARGO FROM VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE EARLY
EVENING LIKELY ENDING 03Z-04Z. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUD DECK GRAND
FORKS TO BEMIDJI SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE EAST LEADING TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH WEDNESDAY SEEING JUST A FEW CLOUDS. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR FOG
CHANCES...NOT IMPOSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE PATCHY SO DID NOT
INCLUDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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