Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...THE UPPER WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY THE TIME THIS FORCING
REACHES THE STATES. THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF ACTIVITY TO THE EAST...WITH ONLY WEAKER AND ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON PERIOD.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA/EASTERN CANADA RESPECTIVELY SLOWLY AMPLIFIES THROUGH 84
HOURS. NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES/JET STREAKS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST SASK AND WAS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS
MORNING AND ALLOWS THE SHOWALTERS TO BECOME NEGATIVE. TWO AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADD LOW
POPS FOR TODAY.

POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ONE
BEING OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING...ANOTHER OVER THE AREA
SAT IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AREA TO START OUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  KEPT IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SUNDAY WITH FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS PRETTY WEAK...THEN DRY
MON-TUE WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMALS. MID
WEEK SHOWS A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL THOUGH BEST MOISTURE STAYS WEST AND SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SO NOT LOOKING AT MUCH OF A CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR EVEN SKC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH NW WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK



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