Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 032126
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL ISSUES TONIGHT INTO
WED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...WE WILL CANCEL ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE AREAS OF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH STARTING AT 00Z...AND THE SOUTHERN 1/3
STARTING AT 06Z...AND RUN IT THROUGH 18Z WED.

ON WED...COLD HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON
FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW.

FOR WED NIGHT...HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BEFORE WARMER
AIR ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR THU/FRI...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH MINIMAL SNOW COVER
FOR MOST AREAS AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GRADUALLY TREND MORE ZONAL LATER IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE GFS/GEM DO
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST MODEL
SIGNAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP IS DURING THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER...GENERALLY IN THE 30S OR HIGHER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF WAVES AND POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
DAY-TO-DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDS WILL GUST NEAR OR OVER 30KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING. A MIX OF
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KTVF/KBJI...OR WITHIN
ANY BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ002-003-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
     013>017.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






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