Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATING FROM HIGH BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER SURFACE
REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE PRECIP WAS REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MAN. WILL NOT MENTION
POPS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES



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