Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THE UPDATE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE INTIMIDATING RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING OUR REGION...HEADED FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INDUCING FRONTOGENESIS. THIS STRONGER BAND OF
RAIN SHOULD SKIRT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FA...AND RAISED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY HERE (ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA).
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TODAY...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS
RELATIVELY DRY...AND ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER
WAVE (AND ASSOCIATED RADAR RETURNS) WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO MOST
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY...KEPT THE MENTION LIMITED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A BIT MORE COMPLEX FCST THIS GO AROUND. ONE 500 MB LOW IN WEST
CENTRAL MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE TWO
WILL GENERALLY COMBINE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NORTHERN
ND/SRN MANITOBA AND MOVE INTO NRN MN 12Z TUESDAY. CANADIAN
RADARS/OBS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH BOTH UPPER SYSTEMS AND
FCST AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TO START THE DAY.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST EAST OF THE BROAD 500 MB LOW AND BRING A BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN SD TODAY AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA (MAINLY SOUTH OF A BDE-FAR LINE)
MID AFTN INTO EVENING. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES UP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING COLD ADVECTION AT 925-850 MB WILL
INCREASE AS SFC WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND EXPECT AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATOCU TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS DECK WILL BE PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH BEST CHC IN NRN FCST AREA. 925 MB-SFC TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C IN DVL BASIN MAY LEAD TO A RA/SN MIX LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OCCURRING WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. BREEZY CHILLY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE WITH TEMPS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
DURING THE DAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 15-25 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER LOW AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO EXIT AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THRU WED
AFTN BUT APPEARS MOISTURE IS MORE MID LEVEL AND WITH SFC DEW PTS
IN THE 20S NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THU. MAIN EFFECTS MAY BE NORTH-NW WINDS THAT COULD BE A
LITTLE BREEZY. 500MB RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
FRI/SAT WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD ON FRI AND THEN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS SAT. MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH BOTH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS SHOWING A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF KEEPS SUNDAY DRY WITH THE MAIN PCPN EFFECTS COMING MORE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH THE LOW KEEPING MORE OF THE PCPN SHIELD
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA
TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT
MAINLY WEST 8 TO 13 KTS. AS SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED LATER
TONIGHT...ESP IN DVL BASIN. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTN/EVE ESP IN BEMIDJI BUT UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE SO LEFT OUT.
THEY WOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




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