Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

AN EXPECTED SFC OBS SHOWS MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE
BORDER...BUT RADAR IS SHOWING STRONG ENOUGH ECHOES FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR NRN RRV AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POP AS IS. CLOUDS
REMAIN BUT FOG HAS DISSPIATED SO REMOVED FOG AND FZDZ WORDING FOR
EASTERN FCST AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR FORECAST.

WEAK RADAR RETURNS/-SN METAR REPORTS CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF POPS VS FLURRIES
NEEDED. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS FA TODAY. AT SAME
TIME UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRACK ACROSS S CANADA PRAIRIE
PROVINCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NOSE OF THIS FEATURE CLOSE
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY WEST
HOWEVER CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY THE FAR WEST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY TODAY AND CONTINUED MILD TONIGHT.

NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH TAKES SHAPE THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEVELOPING SNOW BAND IN ZONE OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEPER LAYERED RH ALONG ND/SD
BORDER AREA. ELSEWHERE COOL DOWN STARTS WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

TROUGH DEEPENS AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM HOWEVER MAIN ENERGY
REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR FA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SNOW CHANCES TO
S-SE TIER OF COUNTIES. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL SAG SE OF THE
FA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
OVERALL...THIS PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY DRY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE UP TOWARDS ALASKA AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C BY TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE 0 OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS
OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL ND AND MAY ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN SASK
UNDER UPPER LEVEL JET. SOME OF THE CLEARING MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE DVL BASIN
THIS EVENING, THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND IN THE FAR
EAST THU MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES






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