Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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636
FXUS63 KFGF 270454
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northern MN
and was moving to the north. Some precip developed over the eastern
zones and should continue to move north early Thu morning. Otherwise
expect deformation snow over the north central part of the area for
the night. Tweak pops for overnight. Otherwise no other changes at
this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Radar continues to show snow over far northwest MN and far eastern
ND. Intensity has decreased over the last couple hours. Updated to
decrease snow amounts for the rest of the night. Raised over lows
a bit for tonight as a cloudy sky is expected. Tweaked sky and
pops. Problem overnight may be roads freezing as temps fall below
freezing. Will keep winter weather advisory going.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Updated forecast with new winter weather advisory for far NW MN
and Traill Co in ND. Radar trends match recent hi-res models runs,
which zero in on this area for snowfall tonight. Believe late in
the evening as sun angle gets lower, snow will begin accumulating
on roadways and cause slippery conditions. Advisories in other
areas will be expiring at 7 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Main concern tonight will be the ongoing precipitation and winter
weather headlines.

As of 20z, surface low pressure was centered across central
Wisconsin with its associated deformation zone of precipitation
continuing to impact parts of eastern North Dakota and into
northwest Minnesota. Snowfall rates haven`t been terribly high
this afternoon with accumulations fairly slow to pile up,
especially on warmer road surfaces. Regardless, at least some
impacts are going to continue for the evening commute with
isolated slick spots on roads and pockets of lower visibility in
heavier bursts of snow.

By this evening, the main area of snow moves into northwest
Minnesota. The latest global models (in addition to recent hi-res
runs) depict a little bit more QPF/snow than yesterday and last
night`s runs. Most are in decent agreement with around 0.20-0.25" of
liquid with the NAM as a bit of an outlier with higher amounts.
Higher amounts aren`t completely out of the question as the band of
snow will move pretty slowly this evening and into the early
overnight. However, snowfall rates will have to get pretty intense
to start accumulating a lot on the warmer roads. Regardless, things
will need to be monitored as we head into the evening and if
headlines will need to be expanded northward at all.

Some lingering snow showers might stick around far northeastern
portions of the area early on Thursday before surface ridging builds
in with a mostly dry day expected. Temperatures will finally begin
to rebound a bit across the west near the ridge axis with readings
into the 40s, but remain a bit colder in the 30s in the far east as
the previous system slowly pulls away.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The last remnants of the surface low continues to track northeast
with high pressure sliding in behind. Otherwise...the upper level
pattern continues in a general split flow regime...with the stronger
stream crossing the southern plains and carving out a broad upper
trof.

By the weekend...temperatures will rebound to more seasonal values
with more tranquil weather.

For Monday...another area of surface low pressure will lift
northeast toward the Great Lakes.  Models indicate the main area of
precipitation will be across the southeast portion of the forecast
area...although there may be some variance in amounts depending on
the exact track. The pattern remains unsettled through the rest of
the period as series of disturbances cross the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

A clear sky was over part of Towner county. The rest of the area was
cloudy with mostly MVFR conditions across the area and mostly IFR
conditions under precip on radar. Expect IFR conditions over the
north/north central part of the area under the precip overnight. The
rest of the area can expect MVFR conditions tonight. MVFR condition
may shift into northwest MN by Thu night.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ030.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...BH
AVIATION...JH



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