Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

small cluster of elevated storms formed nr carrington ND last
evening moved east-northeast to near Mayville then a storm within
that cluster took off and moved nearly due north into west side of
grand forks producing a long period of quarter to golf ball hail.

Will maintain isold tstm coverage for this thru 12z-13z into the
far nrn RRV. Storm formed in area of quite strong 850 mb moisture
advection which is shown nicely on SPC meso page.

for the balance of this morning once the current storm is gone it
should be quiet. Low pressure in north central ND and cold front
will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late
aftn. Initially not much will form until late aftn as front
encounters deeper moisture in srn RRV into NW MN. Thus pops
highest this area early evening.

No one meso model has been doing well. HRRR does keep some
development this aftn nr GFK and other action northeast of DVL and
then develops more as front moves east into W MN. That goes along
with fcst. Best bulk shear is right near or just behind front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

T-storm changes exits eastern fcst late tonight/early Wednesday.
Then a break before cooler air/stratocu and risk of showers wrap
back southeast into nrn 1/2 of fcst area late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Friday to Monday...Southwest flow aloft will develop and bring
chances for convection for the period. timing the waves will be a
challenge. Current indications are that Friday afternoon into
Saturday and again Sunday night into Monday will be times where
shower activity is more probable. Temperatures will be in the mid
70s to around 80 for the weekend...spot on the normal for the end of
August in the northern plains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR with mid-level cigs moving across region in mid-afternoon as
passing cold front initiates convection in the late aftn through
mid evening hours. BJI should have the best chance of TSRA and
lowered CIGs into MVFR range but no mention of thunder quite yet.
Will add TSRA as confidence in timing/location/coverage increases.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher



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