Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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469
FXUS63 KFGF 270806
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
306 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Fog and cloud cover continue to be the main forecast challenges,
which in turn, greatly affect temps. As of early this morning,
dense fog was mainly located along and north of highway 2. It has
still not reached areas west and north of Devils Lake, or the
Grand Forks area proper. Cirrus is moving over the FA now and is
restricting the ability to see most of the low clouds, so not able
to get a good look at the fog. However, previous shift issued a
dense fog advisory for this area, and it seems to be working out
for the most part. Models show this area being slow to improve
today, ever so slowly lifting it NNW. However, it does linger it
for most of the day, so if this holds true it will hold temps down
over northeast ND into far northwest MN. However, all it takes is
a few hours of sun and temps respond quickly. Fog and low clouds
are not as extensive across the southern half of the FA, but they
too will bearing watching. Models show this half of the FA seeing
more sun today, and thus, warmer temps. Looking ahead into
tonight, sfc winds remain very light. Some of the models are
showing stratus redevelopment over northeast ND. However,
confidence that far out is low so will not mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Not a whole lot of change in the overall pattern into mid week.
The sfc flow remains fairly light, so fog could be an issue at
times. Any fog or low clouds will continue to affect temps, both
at night and during the day. Kept any mention of pcpn out of the
forecast.

Low impact weather expected for the end of the work week and through
the weekend. Upper level split flow pattern continues with our area
remaining under the northern stream while several upper lows move
through the southern stream across the central and southern CONUS. A
few shortwaves look to pass through the northern stream bringing
some minor chances for precipitation, the first to end the work week
on Friday and possibly another late in the weekend. Any
precipitation looks to be pretty light and mostly rain (maybe some
rain/snow mix for a few hours depending on timing).

Thermal profiles continue to remain pretty consistent throughout the
period with no major swings in temperatures expected. Above normal
readings with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Visibilities were decreasing over parts of the northern Red River
Valley with some places at 1/4sm in fog. Elsewhere the sky was
mostly clear in the northern valley and more mid and high clouds
moving into the southern valley. Expect IFR conditions tonight and
Mon morning mainly over the northern Red River Valley. The fog
should burn off Mon morning. However MVFR/IFR cigs may remain over
northeast ND along the International border.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for MNZ001-004-005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lee
AVIATION...JH



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