Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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895
FXUS63 KFGF 171841
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Temperatures made quite a jump with Fargo already setting a
record. Needed to raise maximum temperatures at most locations.
Not other changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 932 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

No changes at this point. Will be watching temperatures through
the update periods.

UPDATE Issued at 704 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

no changes necessary. light fog in southeastern fcst area around
park rapids/wadena with vsbys 1 1/2 to 5 sm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Today will be a mild day with likely record highs in Fargo and
possibly in Grand Forks. Upper level ridge over the area and do
expect a good deal of sunshine and winds will turn west-southwest
this afternoon, esp in the RRV and eastern ND. A 500 mb short
wave moves northeast from NW ND into Manitoba today and along with
that some mid clouds and a few sprinkles. A weak surface low
will move east from central Saskatchewan to central Manitoba and
into NW Ontario. A weak trough will extend south of the low and
move into the RRV this aftn and along and west of this winds to
turn the west or southwest. This will aid in warming so did go on
the high end of guidance. Highest 925 mb temps are currently and
and they are a tad lower this aftn so max 925 mb warming not
coinciding with max sfc heating time and this may prevent temps
from getting to out of control.

Mild tonight once again. Did not include any fog as past few
nights the short range models have indicated some and there has
been little as low levels have remained rather dry still.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Continued mild as advertised. Saturday will see a good deal of sun
once again. 850-925 mb temps a tad cooler in NE ND but winds
remain favorable westerly so this likely offsets any cooling aloft
in terms of sfc temps as lowest levels better mixed. Models do
have an area of thicker mid level moisture moving into the area
Saturday late night into Sunday. GFS spits out some light qpf in
NW fcst area Sunday morning and model blend did give a low pop in
area west and north of DVL. Kept it as it blended with WFO BIS
well. Anything would be light. Potential cloud cover Sunday may
inhibit warming a bit.

Monday through Thursday

A 500mb short wave lifts from southwest to northeast through the FA
Monday into Monday night. At the sfc, a low is forecast to track
from near Mobridge SD at 12Z Monday to northeast Manitoba by 12Z
Tuesday. 850mb temps do drop after this low moves through the FA,
but overall not enough to matter much. Therefore, pcpn type should
stay mainly as rain. Models still show some weak instability, so
left the mention of isolated thunder across the far southern FA.

After this system moves through the flow turns more zonal, with
another weak short wave expected to move across the northern FA
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models differ a little on the sfc
pattern, but most show some sort of weak low accompanying this
feature. Temperatures would support this event starting off as light
rain, but quickly changing over to light snow overnight and into
Wednesday.

Cooler air gets drawn into the FA by Thursday, as the next system
begins to take shape over Colorado. This Colorado Low finally moves
out into the Central Plains by 00Z Friday, and where it goes from
there will be a challenge for later forecasts. At this point, it
seems the primary path would be toward southern Wisconsin or
northern Illinois, but that could change with later runs. Temps would
be cold enough for most pcpn in this FA to fall as snow. With the
currently expected low track, snow would primarily fall across the
southern half of the FA and southward. This event will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Still too much
uncertainty about fog potential but with todays melting still some
possibilities so worth monitoring tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Voelker



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