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000
FXUS63 KFGF 142340
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire conditions particularly southeastern North
Dakota Monday.

- 50% chance for areas to see greater than an inch of rainfall
  Monday through Wednesday, highest chances across southeastern
  North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increasing high/mid level cloud cover tonight as upper level
wave moves along the International border. Radar has shown some
weak returns, but airmass sub cloud layer is very dry so will
maintain dry fcst this evening. Late tonight into Monday in
850-700 mb level warm advection zone developing into SE ND will
keep the chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Sfc ridging will continue to shift east through the night with winds
fading shortly after sunset. The red flag warning currently in
effect for the northern valley looks set to expire without a hitch.
A s we move into the overnight and winds switch to the west a
developing low level jet at 925/850 mb between the approaching upper
low to the south and ridging to our then east will present a belt of
30-40 kts winds in the low levels. This will efficiently transfer to
the ground as we begin to mix out in the morning with gusts up to 30
mph through the afternoon. Source region for the air will be from
the north so on top of it being breezy it will also be a drying wind
presenting another day of near critical fire weather as RH of 25-30%
and winds over 20 mph combine. At the same time warm air advection
builds in on the north side of the nearing low with that low level
jet with increasing mid level moisture from the south. Given cold
air advection at 700mb and MUCAPE in the 100-200 j/kg range a few
elevated thundershowers are possible through the morning hours before
mixing heights climb and dry large low level dewpoint depressions
become too much to overcome. The most favored area to see any of
these showers will be from Valley City to Fargo corridor and south
with a 30% chance for 0.10" or more. Primary forecast problem will
be if low level dry air will win out or not resulting in mostly
virga until the main wave can arrive Tuesday conquering the dry air
and finally allowing the more steady rain chances to begin.

Higher confidence in more widespread rain starting on Tuesday. As
the main low propagates into the Central Plains, an inverted trough
through the region will enhance rainfall. Transient areas of
frontogensis will pivot from southwest to northeast as the system
as a whole propagates east with the heaviest rainfall totals tied to
the track of these bands. In addition, embedded thunderstorms in
conjunction with where the heaviest bands of rain pivot will vary
rainfall totals over short distances. Hence why, in this type of
setup, the areal coverage of  higher totals remains in question.
Where heavier rain can organize, over an inch of rain is likely to
fall, outside of these pockets around three quarters of an inch or
less of rain is more likely. Probabilities remain at 50% for
receiving 1 inch of rain, highest in southeastern North Dakota.
Probabilities for 1 inch fall to 20% across northwestern Minnesota
and adjacent parts of North Dakota where there is less confidence in
those heavier rain bands. Besides the rain, strong southeasterly
winds due to a low level jet east of the inverted trough will
produce wind gusts through Tuesday in excess of 40 mph.

As the low propagates east on Wednesday, rainfall will taper from
southwest to northeast. During this time the FA falls on the
backside of the passing low, which with associated cold air
advection will increase northwesterly winds through the day. These
winds will continue and pick up as the pressure gradient tightens on
Thursday. The trailing low over southern Canada associated with the
inverted trough will slowly propagate south. This will provide a low
chance (30%) of rain and/or snow showers, especially north of
highway 2. Winds will remain elevated into Friday, with cooler
temperatures. High temperatures to end the week will be stuck in the
40s, with overnight lows dipping into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increased high/mid clouds into Monday. Northwest winds go light
and turn north-northeast overnight and then east-southeast
daytime Monday. Winds speeds increase quickly Monday west of the
Red river valley with gusts over 25 kts in DVL area after 15z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     027-030.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Rafferty/TT
AVIATION...Riddle