Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR



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