Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS
NO OR LIMITED SNOW COVER) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MAX TEMPS ALREADY.
WILL USE THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR GUIDANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPS
MOST AREAS (MID TO UPPER 30S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER...AND
NEAR FREEZING WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS INITIALLY...THEN THREAT FOR SOME
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...BUT NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

FOR TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 30KT IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT
TIMES. THE MERCURY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY...AND WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 8 HITTING
32 FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF STRATUS MOVING NORTH
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT JUST HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING SNOW WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
THE NORTH VALLEY...MAINLY IN WESTERN MARSHALL/KITTSON AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOW AND PERHAPS MID 30S NEAR SNOW FREE AREAS. THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR SAT NIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN PERHAPS ACCORDING TO TOP DOWN METHOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

ON SUNDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREA. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST FIRST...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW IN THE FAR NW LATER
SUNDAY THEN SOME BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR
A TROWAL. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX IN THE VALLEY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR AREAS
THAT GET AN INCH OF SNOW...AND THERE COULD BE MORE VISIBILITY
ISSUES WHERE A CURRENT SNOW PACK OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS IN PLACE.
THERE COULD BE SOME MELTING/CRUSTING OF SNOW PACK THOUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO EXPECT VSBY ISSUES TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST
HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. THE GFS GIVES THE NORTHERN AREAS ABOUT 2
INCHES...WITH AN INCH OR SO NEAR GFK...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY...THEN THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WOULD BE IMPACTED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND LOW VSBYS IN OPEN COUNTRY
...SO WILL START TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN THE VALLEY AND HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT DEPARTING LOW MAKES MONDAY A WINDY DAY. TROWAL SETUP
SUGGESTS WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL WILL BE OF A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT TO BE
BLOWN AROUND BY STRONG WINDS. HAVE USED THE MOS WINDS FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS LOCAL TOOLS INDICATE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF BS WHERE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE STEADY OF FALL SLOWLY
IN CAA.

AS SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVES ANOTHER WAVE
ACROSS THE CWFA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM/UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG A TRACK FAVORABLE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNING THE REGION TO A TEMPERATURE REGIME MORE LIKE MID
JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 06Z WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND MID
CLOUD.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING.  A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OR A TAD
SOUTH OF IT BY 12Z SAT.  RAP AND SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
MVFR CIGS PSBL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR
NORTHERN MN MOSTLY 12-18Z SATURDAY PERIOD. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH
MVFR CIGS WILL GET HOWEVER.  ANOTHER CONCERN IS LOWER CLOUDS IN
EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. 859-925 MB WINDS WOULD SUGGEST THE TARGET
AREA FOR THOSE WILL BE IOWA....SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE




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