Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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814
FXUS63 KFGF 141534
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WE WILL BE CANCELING THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW MOVING OUT. THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL MOVE
INTO NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN AND
AN INCH OR 2 POSSIBLE HERE...SO WILL INCREASE POPS.
ELSEWHERE...SOUNDINGS IN THE WEST INDICATE THAT FZDZ IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL ADD A MENTION WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS SNOW TRENDS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL UTILIZE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW TRENDS TODAY.

MOST DISTINCT SNOW BAND WITH LOWEST VSBY OVER THE SW FA SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. VSBYS IN THIS REGION
1/4-1 MILE AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH RETURNS WEAKER AND VSBY HAS
RANGED GENERALLY FROM 1-3 MILES. WINDS ALSO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
TO GENERAL 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH VSBY NOT A PROBLEM
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST BY
EVENING AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OVERALL WITH EXCEPTION OF
THE SW LOOKING AT GENERAL 1-2 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING SHOULD SEE A MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST WHICH SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS.

SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE QUIET. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD.

DAY TIME MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WAVE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL
BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN INTO MIDWEEK BUT NOTHING SERIOUS.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A MORE ZONAL...PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
DEVELOPS...FLOODING MUCH OF THE US WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS THUR NIGHT/FRI WITH
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAINING WITH SFC FEATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIP
CHANCES. FOR ANY PRECIP...PTYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH GFS/ECMWF
BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C BY THUR NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. HIGHS
THUR-SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WITH EVEN SOME
40S POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CIGS OVER THE FAR EAST SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AS SNOW
MOVES IN. FARTHER WEST EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
VSBY OCNL IN MVFR RANGE WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS SNOW
BAND SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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