Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231734
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant winter impacts are expected Sunday through Tuesday,
  from heavy snow and gusty winds. A winter storm watch remains
  in effect for much of eastern North Dakota and northwest
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Continued quiet weather through the mid-day period. No huge
changes for today`s forecast and will focus on the upcoming
storm.

UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Fairly quiet with increasing clouds across our southeastern ND
counties, but mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Temps remaining
mostly in the teens with dew points in the single digits, so
still a lot of dry air to overcome as the system starts to move
into the area tonight and tomorrow.


UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Still pretty quiet across the FA this morning, with light winds
and just some thin cirrus pushing in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The Sunday through Tuesday system remains the main story for this
forecast package. There are a couple of things that immediately come
to the front.

1. There will be no changes to the watch area on this shift.
2. Will not be upgrading to warnings/advisories on this shift.
3. Will break up the watch area a little more, to segment the
starting and ending times better from south to north.

Starting off with the current conditions, high pressure is nosing
into the FA from Manitoba. This is bringing a dry northernly flow to
most of the FA. Surface dewpoints early this morning range from 10F
in Gwinner to -3F at Baudette to -10F in southwest Ontario. So as
this event will begin to unfold, there is a lot of dry air to
initially overcome. Will start out the day with abundant sunshine,
but there will be increasing clouds from west to east throughout the
day. Look for highs to be pretty similar to those from Friday, and
winds will stay on the lighter side. With the dry air in place,
models have been backing off the chances for any light snow reaching
this FA during the daylight hours. If anything actually does, it
would only be the far southwest FA.

The same story (dry air) continues into tonight. The initial subtle
700mb short wave and 850mb warm advection continue to push eastward
across mainly the southern FA. NBM probabilities for a dusting
of snow are generally above 90 percent mainly along and south of a
line from Devils Lake to Wadena. However, this will not be the main
event. Think this will mainly go into saturating the area for the
heavier precipitation that will begin to move in on Sunday. Do not
expect any wind impacts tonight either, as the surface winds will be
cross Red River Valley (easterly). Pushed back the start time of the
watch to Sunday for all but southeast North Dakota, and probably
could have done them too (but left them alone for coordination
purposes).

Expect more of the winter storm impacts to begin to arrive on
Sunday, especially along and south of the highway 2 corridor. This
is where most of the snow should fall on Sunday. Lesser amounts are
anticipated north of highway 2 during the day Sunday. Winds should
turn more northeasterly on Sunday and pick up. Followed the NBM for
winds, but think they may be a bit high overall this early in the
event. Believe the windiest area Sunday will be in the slightly
higher elevations west of the Valley, where there could be some
blowing snow.

More confident in the NBM winds (which show gusts to 45 mph or
so) by Monday into Tuesday, as directions shift more northerly.
Monday into Tuesday continues the steady snowfall. It does seem
like the heaviest swath of QPF will be from Sioux Falls to
Minneapolis, with a gradient tapering off to the northwest into our
FA. Continue to get very high probabilities for amounts greater than
12 inches across southeast North Dakota into adjacent areas of west
central Minnesota (up toward Bemidji). However, there remains a lot
of uncertainty on amounts outside of this area, especially from the
Devils Lake region through the northern Valley. Hoping that people
do not get fixated on the amounts, as they will fall over a 3 day
period. There could be some melting/compacting and once winds pick
up compacting with blowing and drifting. So overall, the highest
impact period will be Monday into Tuesday. Did extend the watch
through 18z Tuesday across our Minnesota FA, as the snow and wind
are slower to move out as well. Would not be surprised if impacts
continue even beyond 18z, to more like 00z Wednesday.

For the later periods (Wednesday through Saturday), there should be
a very slight warming trend. However, this depends highly on how
much snow has fallen and where.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

All the TAF sites are expected to remain with VFR conditions
and light winds throughout today. There are some thin high level
cirrus clouds moving over the northern TAF sites KGFK, KTVF,
and KBJI through out the day. KDVL and KFAR are right on the
axis of some mid level stratus between 9,000 and 12,000ft.
Tomorrow, there is uncertainty with the start of snowfall at all
TAF sites. There is a significant dry air mass residing over
our area that prevents saturation and snowfall from occurring.
It is likely that the ceiling will drop and virga occur around
08z tomorrow morning. But it may take awhile for that virga to
saturate the air for snow to make it to the surface. It could
end up being until after 12z for snow to occur at KFAR and even
later in the day the further north the airport is.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
     morning for NDZ008-016.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for NDZ024-026>030.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning
     for NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MNZ001>003-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for MNZ004>008.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM/JR


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