Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 101841
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. DID ADD A
FLURRY MENTION IN E ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING ECHOS
ON RADAR ANS A FEW 5 TO 7 MILE VSBY REPORTS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A 150
KT JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING SINCE BEFORE 06Z IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WITH AUTOMATED SITES
SHOWING AROUND 0.06 TO 0.08 INCHES OF LIQUID SO FAR. THE SNOW BAND
LINES UP WELL WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET AS WELL AS
700MB FRONTOGENESIS SEEN ON SPC MESO PAGE. VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY IN
THE 2 TO 5SM RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1SM AT
TIMES. THE MODELS HAVE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
TODAY...SO THINK WE SHOULD HAVE PRETTY DECENT BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN
BACKING OFF ON QPF...BUT WILL KEEP THE 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST
FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS ARE AT 12Z. DID CUT THE AMOUNTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
COLDER TEMPS EVEN WITH MORE SUN IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL START
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL START MOVING INTO WESTERN ND...SO OUR WEST SHOULD BE
CLOUDY EVEN AS THE PRECIP STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. THE NORTHEAST WILL
AGAIN HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO GETTING
DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE
CLOUDY WEST AND MORE SUNNY EAST SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS AGAIN SHOWING A DECENT GRADIENT OF SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY LATE
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. OF GREATER NOTE IS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MORE THAN 1040MB HIGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP HIGHS ON FRIDAY BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD BE EVEN COLDER.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS RUN. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAVE PROGRESSES EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...WITH GENERAL MVFR
CIGS AND AT TIMES VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10KT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK


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