Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 062049
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MIDDAY HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH MOST OF OUR SMOKE AND
HAZE LAYERS WELL INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
COOLER AND FRESHER AIR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH
CHANGING WIND FLOW IS ALREADY TRACKING SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AND CANADIAN FOREST FIRE SMOKE (AIR QUALITY) WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL STEADILY TURN
FROM THE SOUTH...AND WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE NWS AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
(AIRQUALITY.WEATHER.GOV) INDICATES THICKER SMOKE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY (SIMILAR DENSITY TO LAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY)...AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE
FORECAST (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING). VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AVIATION...ALTHOUGH AIR QUALITY MAY AGAIN BE UNHEALTHY
(ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
MNDAK REGION BY EARLY MORNING. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING BACK INTO TEH AREA FROM CANADA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WITH THE FRONT. THOUGH AS FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STARTS OUT
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ALL
HAVE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA. THE GFS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF LINGERS IT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY. QUITE A FEW OF THE NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW A WET
SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP THE BLEND OF POPS WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KTS HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES AND ALL HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SMOKE REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND AND INTO
CANADA. THINK THAT AS WINDS GO DOWN THIS EVENING WE WILL SEE THE
REDUCED VIS DUE TO SMOKE RETURN AS WHAT IS BEING CURRENTLY MIXED
SETTLES OUT...BUT MODELS DO NOT HAVE MUCH SFC SMOKE UNTIL AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE HAZE/SMOKE RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES
BUT KBJI THIS EVENING...AND THAT EASTERN TAF SITE BY MORNING. KEPT
CONDITIONS MVFR AS DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE VERY THICK BUT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS DOWN TO THE 3-5SM RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJG
LONG TERM...GJG/JR
AVIATION...JR


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