Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fog is the main short term forecast challenge. As of early this
morning, the fog was thickest in Sargent County, where Gwinner has
been reporting vsbys less than a quarter mile since about 11 pm.
However, it does seem to be localized around Gwinner as nearby
observation points do not have vsbys quite that low. For that
reason will hold off on a dense fog advisory, unless more points
in that region drop that low as well. Otherwise, fog seems pretty
common south of a line from Gwinner to Fargo North Dakota to
Thief River Falls to Waskish Minnesota, where vsbys generally
range from 2 to 4 miles. With the steady north flow, thinking the
fog will stay in the ranges it is at now, but there could be a few
spots that get lower.

Clear skies have spread into the Devils Lake to Pembina region,
but this area did not pick up much rain yesterday, so fog will
probably be more spotty there. Highs today will depend on how
fast the fog lifts and also how fast the other clouds go away.
Models seem consistent in showing this to be by mid to late
morning, with highs similar to those observed Thursday. Looking
like winds will get down into the 5 to 10 mph range again tonight,
so there may be fog development again. At this point will not add
it to the forecast, but will brief the next shift about the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fairly weak sfc pattern holds over the FA Saturday through Sunday
night. Models still indicate the next chance of pcpn arriving
across the western Devils Lake region late Saturday night, with
spotty chances elsewhere Sunday into Sunday night. None of this
will result in much accumulated precipitation.

A quiet and seasonably mild stretch is in store for much of the
upcoming week. Upper air pattern depicts a well defined split flow
with southern branch showing most of the action as low closes off
vcnty southern plains on Wed and heads toward lower MS valley Thu.
Meanwhile a weak shortwave or two will transit northern plains,
bringing just slght/chc pops in form of overnight wintry mix and
daytime rain. Temps will feature highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s
(the warmest at end of period) with lows near or a shade above


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fog and low clouds will be the main aviation concern. Have gone
with the idea of current conditions holding through the early to
mid morning hours. Some spots may get lower, especially around
sunrise, but think that will not be the norm. Clouds and fog
should begin to lift by mid to late morning, resulting in VFR
conditions again.




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