Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED POPS AS THE BAND THAT DROPPED ABOUT AN INCH IN FARGO
BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE BAND BROUGHT 2-3 INCHES IN PARTS OF
WADENA AND OTTERTAIL COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND CLOSELY. STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT IF THERE IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH THERE
COULD BE MORE THAN SIX INCHES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS






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