Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281731
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE SPRINKLES AROUND THE FARGO/MOORHEAD AREA HAVE PRETTY MUCH
FADED OUT NOW. THERE IS ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DOWN NEAR KSTC
THAT IS ROTATING BACK TO THE WEST...BUT THINK THIS WILL STAY JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME VARIABLE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK


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