Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211600
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

500 mb short wave moving thru far southern Manitoba causing a
small complex of elevated convection moving east into N Pembina
county. otherwise instability for surface based convection is
still a few hours away.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Heat index and severe storm potential the main impacts. As with
most convective events, details remain uncertain. With that said,
the potential appears relatively high for some sort of severe
weather event. CAMs provide a wide variety of outcomes with
regards to coverage, location, and timing. However, all CAMs
indicate severe thunderstorms at some point this afternoon or
evening within the forecast area.

As of 08z, SFC boundary extending from low pressure in eastern
Montana extends across northern North Dakota. Expect the SFC low
to propagate eastward along this SFC boundary today and be located
near Devils Lake around 00z. There are currently a few clusters of
storms around the region. Most CAM guidance appears to be too
robust with activity through the morning hours compared with
current radar. The cluster of storms near northwest ND is timed to
be east of the FA by 18z. Also expect warmer mid-level
temperatures to advect into the region this morning. Given these
factors, anticipate clearing across at least the warm sector,
allowing temperatures to climb to near 90F. These temps combined
with dew points in the 70s will lead to near heat advisory
conditions. The upper wave likely responsible for propagating the
SFC low eastward, and inducing convection this afternoon seems to
be located across central Montana at 08z (indicated by radar and
satellite). Timing of this wave will determine when convection
develops. Once it does, expect explosive development with all
modes of severe weather possible. The potential exists for
significant severe reports given the expected environmental set-
up.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Saturday-Sunday...Upper low and cold pool aloft will be near
northern Minnesota on Saturday. Afternoon storms will be possible
(especially NW MN), and some may be stronger (main impact hail
considering relatively lower freezing levels). Cooler airmass
moves into the region on Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...Later Monday into Tuesday, an upper low will
track across central Sask and MB. Favored upper support north of
border however with associated surface boundary crossing the fa
pops warranted with highest pops along the international border.
Midweek, surface high pressure should keep northern areas dry.
Farther south another wave will track across the central plains.
GEM farthest north with most guidance keeping brunt of rain to our
south. The end of the work week looks generally dry at this
point. Temperatures through the period should range pretty close
to seasonal averages with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows around
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Main aviation
concern will be thunderstorm chances, which seem very possible at
some point during this period (provided a TEMPO group for the most
likely period at each TAF site).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Voelker
AVIATION...TG



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