Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191316
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
716 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

No changes needed to the forecast today with ongoing flurries
across the south. Will see increasing in snow chances from
southwest to northeast late this afternoon into the evening as the
next short wave brings another round of winter. Most significant impacts
still expected to be felt Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Concerns and or impacts in the short term will be snow fall
as the next short wave brings a wide swath of snow to much of the
northern plains. Weather impacts on this Washington birthday
anniversary will hold off into the early evening. Light snow or
flurry chances will persist for much of the day in the southern
valley with minimal accumulations. Temperatures will be primarily
in the single digits west and low teens east for highs.

By mid afternoon a robust wave will lift northeast in the
southwest flow aloft providing broad scale synoptic lift to the
northern plains. Expecting snowfall to spread from the southwest
to northeast with accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches with
the most intense snowfall occurring in the midnight to 6am time
frame. Highest amounts across the Tri- State region into the
Fergus Falls and Park Rapids corridor where 6 inches or more is
possible as models indicate a banding potential with
frontogenetical forcing producing higher QPFs and snowfall rates.
Occurrence and placement of this band will need to be monitored
throughout the day. Will be issuing winter weather advisory to
address these impacts from Valley city to Ada to Waskisk and
south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Lingering light snow and snow showers will be likely Tues afternoon
before the storm complex pushes well east of the area. Surface high
pressure will begin to dominate Tue night through Wed, with
overnight temps dipping toward 10 below, creating marginal advisory
conditions for wind chill. Highs will remain below average for Wed.

Ensembles and deterministic models reveal nothing out of the
ordinary for the late week period into the weekend. The high will
move farther east with return flow moving temperatures back toward
average with highs in the 20s over the south Thu and everywhere by
Fri. The storm track will remain south of the forecast region
through early weekend with the hint of a clipper system around
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

VFR with north winds today to give way to lowering CIGs from
southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening. Expecting MVFR
CIGs and VSBYs to develop as snow intensity increases this evening
and overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for NDZ038-039-049-052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MNZ002-003-009-015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK



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