Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Fog has lifted across the area and there has actually been seen
some clearing across the Devils Lake Basin. With sunshine temps
have already risen into the mid to upper 40s across that area so
bumped up temps across the northwestern counties. Kept conditions
cloudy further south and east and will leave highs in the low 40s
for now.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloud trends and fog remain the primary forecast challenges. As of
3 AM this morning, clouds covered most of the FA, but low clouds
will be the bigger story. These low clouds started out across the
southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota, and they
have since expanded to all areas south of a line from Cooperstown
to Grand Forks North Dakota over toward the Upper and Lower Red
Lakes in Minnesota. These will continue to expand northward
through sunrise. There is also some fog, with patches around
Crookston and Thief River Falls, and more from Gwinner to
Cooperstown. With the cloud cover, not expecting this fog to get
dense, but it could expand to other areas too. Like yesterday,
these clouds held for much of the day and therefore limited the
temperature rise. Today, the clouds could be even thicker and last
longer. Therefore after coordinating with adjacent offices,
lowered high temperatures. This may not even be enough if the
clouds hold all day. The surface wind flow remains very weak today
into tonight, so will likely be dealing with the same issues
throughout. However, they will help to hold up temperatures

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Same story continues Monday through Tuesday night, in regard to
the weak surface flow. This will make forecasting day to day
cloud trends difficult. Will need sun to hit the expected highs,
which may not be easy to figure out more than day to day. Despite
the cloud and temperature issues, not expecting any pcpn.

Split flow will continue over the CONUS with several shortwaves
flanking a short wave ridge in the northern stream. The first of
these will affect the forecast area Wed with the standard early
morning mixed pcpn followed by rain. The ridging should provide dry
and rather mild weather for Thu into Fri. Meanwhile a pair of closed
lows will trek more slowly through the southern stream. There are
signs the second of these will lift a bit farther north creating
pcpn chances in tandem with the northern short wave for Sat. As
mentioned, temps will continue to be warm for late March with
perhaps a bit of a cool down for the end of the period with approach
and passage of a cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Some clearing across the northwest forecast area with VFR
conditions in KDVL. The other sites remain IFR to MVFR. Think that
KGFK could see some improvement to VFR for a while this afternoon
but the sites further south and east will stay in the stratus as
the clearing line stalls out. Some lower visibilities are possible
again tonight across the southern and eastern forecast area as
winds become light again. Have some vis down to 1/2SM at KBJI,
KTVF, and KFAR and it is possible that it could go lower in some
spots. Ceilings will be under 1000 ft for all TAF sites as more
stratus moves in overnight. There could be some improvement to
MVFR by late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and
variable for much of the period.




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