Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302012
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SHORT TERM PCPN TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

SHRA OVER NW MN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME SHRA UP IN CANADA WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR
NE FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT POPS INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING
IN FOR LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.

AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START OUT
MAINLY SKC WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD THERMAL RECOVERY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

MIXING AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

STACKED LOW DEVELOPS OVER SASK WEDNESDAY WITH FA MAINLY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING. WITH DEEPEST LAYERED RH
NORTH OF THE BORDER FROPA LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION CLOSEST TO UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE FA.
BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA
AT PRIME HEATING SO ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF THE FA.

COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AM.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN COLD ADVECTION ZONE SO WILL
KEEP POPS AS IS. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM (FRI THROUGH MON)...
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AS EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS...WITH JUST WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BUT BY THIS TIME COOLER AIR IS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE -5 TO -10 850MB TEMPS IN PLACE DURING FRIDAY.
ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS
STAYING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
MAXES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WOULD BE AT END OF THE CYCLE WHERE A
DIFFUSE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREA OF -RA AND -SHRA HEADING FROM VALLEY TO KTVF/KBJI AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHD BE THROUGH ENTIRE REGION BY 21-00Z. WSHFT TO NW AS
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH FROM KGFK-KFAR-KTVF-KBJI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTINESS AT TIMES VCNTY KFAR. OTHERWISE VFR CIG
LIFTING/BCMG SKC WITH TIME IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB





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