Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280539
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

There are still a couple of stations reporting very light snow
from Devils Lake to Roseau, but echoes on radar in these areas
continue to shrink. There are still echoes across the far
southern FA as well, but no reports of anything reaching the
ground yet. There has been some light snow at Aberdeen SD, and
some of this will try to reach the southern FA overnight into
Tuesday morning. High resolution models continue to back off on
this event though, so confidence is low that much of anything will
occur there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Snow chances will continue to be the main impacts through the
short term. Current snow band from northern DVL basin into the
northern valley will continue to lift northeast through the late
afternoon and evening. Model guidance has this band weakening
through the period as isentropic lift weakens so will have to
monitor trends but did taper off pops with time. Web cams within
snow band not showing any significant accumulations. With NW-SE
baroclinic zone in place will see a respectable thermal gradient
across the region with single digits in the NW to mid 20s over the
SE.

The next challenge will be developing snow band over the SE fa
later tonight. Baroclinic zone tightens along frontal boundary
oriented from the SE tip of ND into the Mn arrowhead region. Snow
should start developing by late evening along boundary with
approach of next wave. High resolution models look to be backing
off on qpf with this event. Using the more robust GFS with qpf,
there is f-gen forcing aligned with Q-vector convergence over the
far SE at 06z however this shifts SE fairly progressively as
boundary sags southward. So based on available guidance not
thinking more than an inch or two across the SE. There is a slight
chance for some mixed pcpn across the far se however at this point
confidence low.

Lingering snow should exit the S-SE by mid morning and as surface
ridge axis builds in remainder of the day should be dry.
Temperatures should range a few degrees either side of average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A quiet Tuesday night will be followed by increasing chances for
some snow across southeastern ND both Wed morning and late Wed night
into Thu morning.  Two waves will move across central and eastern ND
in that timeframe, with the second one being a clipper entering the
valley region Wed evening.  This system has decent overlap of H850
FG forcing and weak Q-vector convergence setting up over SE ND,
however current QPF trends are not impressive at this time.  Given
the dynamics, however, more bullish QPF could lead to a quick
coating of snow in the Devils Lake-Valley City-Wahpeton area from
midnight through sunrise Thursday.  Colder temperatures behind this
system will bring a chillier Thursday, with daytime highs ranging
from the mid teens to mid 20s, and overnight lows across the
northeast possibly seeing single digits below zero.  Ridging over
the Canadian Rockies then shifts east late in the week bringing
warmer temperatures for Fri and Sat...with daytime highs about 10
deg over seasonal norms Fri and 15 degs over on Sat, which could see
highs in the 40s for the southern half of the forecast area.
Agreement between the long range models begins to break down by Sun,
with GFS showing a potentially significant system (for srn Canada)
bringing snow to Sask/MB Mon aftn and evening while the ECMWF shows
precip across the southern valley Sun night and ridging over the
area on Mon. Thus confidence is low in the Day 6 to Day 7 timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast guidance indicates that ceilings should generally hold in
the VFR range, but could drop into the higher end of MVFR at times
yet. KDVL is near the edge of some clearing, so it may clear out
before morning for a while. Did not mention light snow at any of
the TAF sites, as it looks now like it will stay south of both
KFAR and KBJI. Still expecting steady north winds.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon



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