Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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448
FXUS63 KFGF 010253
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Showers in the far western fcst area dying off with just a small
area left in towner county nd. They appear to be dying off and
latest very short term models indicate dry weather overnight now.
So after 04z went dry.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Weak convection still ongoing across central ND with areal
coverage expanding over the last hour or so. Will go ahead and add
a mention of isolated thunder in the west and north as the WAA
forcing slowly moves east and will weaken this
evening...redeveloping to the northwest in southern Canada toward
morning. With upper...500mb...ridging increasing or amplifying
over the FA overnight expecting any convect activity to diminish.

At the SFC overnight high pressure ridge axis shift to the east
and southeasterly return flow sets up bringing more mixing and
keeping temps from falling as much as last night with the only 40s
expected in the far east where winds maybe lighter longer. With
these winds and warmer temps do not think the morning ground fog
that we had this AM will be an issue tomorrow. Elsewhere minimum
temps will be in the 50s. Highs for Thursday expected to be warmer
in the west and valley with low to mid 80s. South to southeast
winds beginning to increase as pressure gradient increases from
the valley westward with winds 10 to 20kts and gusts around
25kts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Thursday night through Wednesday.

Mid level ridge will shift east putting FA into mid level SW flow
aloft which will in turn result in relatively active period the
Holiday weekend into early next week.

Windy, mild and generally dry conditions expected through Friday.
Cold front associated with wave lifting NE through the western
trough will propagate to the central Dakotas at prime heating on
Saturday. Severe potential at this point looks marginal but
possible.  With front parallel to the flow eastward movement will be
slow to occur allowing for rain chances to continue through Sunday.
Will see a break Labor Day before rain chances return Tuesday. Above
average temperatures through Saturday cooling to below average
following fropa Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VFR thru the fcst pd. area of mid clouds DVL region thru much of
the night before clearing out. Otherwise broken cirrus shield
moving into the RRV tonight then thinning out Thursday. winds
which have been so light the last two days will pick up from the
south-southeast Thursday into the 10-20 kt range all but BJI.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle



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