Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 010859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES. ONE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...AND WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE
ND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK...AND ONLY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (FOR MAINLY NE ND). WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL APPROACH...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER ON TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
OCCUR PAST PEAK HEATING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH MODEL INDICATING 850MB
COMPUTED CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR
40 KNOTS). THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE MID- LEVEL LOW. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES (GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC TYPE FORCING EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER


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