Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241542
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED TO DROP WIND ADVSIORY. WFO ABR WILL DROP THEIRS AS WELL.
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TWEEKED SKY COVER AS
CLEARING LINE MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY....BUT PATCHES OF
CLOUDS REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY SO NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS





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