Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR SO DVL BASIN AND THEN RRV TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TUES AFTN-
EVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
BY 06Z WED BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING LEFT PRECIP OUT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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