Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190548
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Fog Forming in the past two hours around St Cloud and area is
expanding northward reaching Glenwood-Long Prairie MN. Thus
confidence is higher in that fog will spread into WC MN overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Challenges tonight and thursday will include temps and potential fog
development. Mixing from the south today has brought dewpoints up
into the mid 20s. Keeping winds up overnight will be critical for
limiting fog development as the snow pack temperature is colder
than current dewpoints (per NOHRSC snowpack analysis.) Winds
appear to remain in the 7 to 10kts across the northern valley with
a bit lighter values in the southern valley. Will go with patchy
fog developing overnight as moist layer condenses above the
relatively cold sfc layer. During the daytime hours tomorrow
deeper moisture and expected stratus deck lifts into wcntl MN by
mid morning. Expanse/timing of the cloud deck and possible fog, as
dewpoints rise into the low 30s, in question to the west and north
during daylight hours. NAM/ARW indicate lower clouds and vsbys
race northward into the Grand Forks area by noon. Nonetheless will
see increasing clouds during the daytime tomorrow though highs
still expected to be in the low and mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Active weather through most of the period as a series of western
waves, upper lows propagate through the forecast area. Primary
challenge will be precipitation type as column remains mild
through the period. Initially moisture advection shallow leading
to the potential for drizzle or freezing drizzle dependent on time
of day. A better chance for either rain/freezing rain or snow this
weekend as deeper saturation occurs through the column. Mid levels
dry out again early next week for possible shift back to the
drizzle thing before the column saturates again towards midweek.
By this time the column looks sufficiently cool enough for mainly
snow. Although precipitation amounts will be on the light side
will have to monitor for icing potential into early next week and
then potential for minor accumulations towards midweek.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Fog forming in central MN at 05z will likely spread north. How far
north is in question...but seems to be increasing chance of fog
into Bemidji and areas south and perhaps into Fargo but confidence
lower there. Will need to monitor other sites but for now kept fog
out and went with the idea of low clouds spreading north over the
area late aftn/evening. So expected variable flight categories to
start Thursday but likely end up IFR in most areas Thu evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle


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