Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Main challenge during the update period today will be
temperatures. With clearing skies across the eastern FA have
removed pops for the remainder of the morning across the far NE.
Temperatures currently on track so plans to change at this point.

UPDATE Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

No changes were made other than to tweak sky cover to go clear
today over E ND and RRV. Remaining clouds Roseau to Park


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Upper level low was over NW Ontario early this morning. One last
piece of energy rotating around it last evening is now moving in
its south side. Some light snow with it at Kenora and Baudette.
This wave will move east this morning as well as the upper low.
Clouds over NW MN and parts of the RRV will gradually clear out
from the west today...though it will take most of the day to do it
for Lake of the Woods. High pressure will continue to build into
central ND today and move over the Red River valley tonight. With
the sun, and a slowly moderating airmass areas in the Red River
valley and west will see low to mid 50s while the eastern fcst
area will see low-mid 40s. Tonight will see lows a bit below
freezing with light winds and clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Sunshine and a bit milder on Saturday as our temperatures recover
from the last several day cold wave. Sunday will be mild once more
with highs mid 50s to low 60s. Clouds will increase into west
central Minnesota Sunday afternoon as a large upper low and
accompanied sfc low move northeast from the central Plains toward
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Precip on the western side of the upper
low will impact west central MN starting in the 06z-12z period
Monday. Surface, 925 mb and 850 mb temps just cold enough for a
mix of rain turning to snow.

The main story for Monday into Monday night will be the 500mb low
that is forecast to lift from Iowa into the central Great Lakes.
This is expected to bring a decent chance of pcpn, mainly to west
central Minnesota. Bumped up pcpn chances in this area a little
more from what guidance came in with and lowered high temperatures
a tad on Monday. At this point, it appears it will be a mix of
rain and snow, with snowfall accumulations of an inch or two. The
biggest challenge for accumulating snow in the southeast FA will
be that most of it falls during the day hours.

After this system tracks to the east, the question shifts mainly
back to temperatures. 500mb ridging shifts into the Rockies and
could push a little further east, but flatten out a little. 850mb
temps begin to rise, with guidance indicating a return to around or
a little above 60 by Thursday/Friday. Could be a few small chances
for light pcpn, but no strong signal at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Lingering area of MVFR cigs around Bemidji thru mid morning then
VFR sct-bkn cloud bases midday-aftn then clear. Clear skies TVF
and RRV/DVL region thru tonight. Northwest wind 8 to 15 kts then
light wind tonight.




LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.