Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251751
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE CAUSED CLOUDS TO FILL IN EVEN OUR
FORMALLY CLEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO BUMPED UP CLOUDS IN THE
GRIDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BELOW THE CLOUD DECK...SO ONLY A FEW
SITES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE SEEN RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND. LOWERED POPS AS MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT
KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR AS
RADAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT RETURNS WITH THE DEVELOPING CU.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

NOT MANY SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THINK SOME SHOWER FORMATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT DID NOT REMOVE THEM COMPLETELY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HAVE BUMPED UP BOTH POPS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN NORTHEAST ND
AND NRN MN FOR TODAY...BUT STILL KEEP MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ALG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HWY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TODAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG BACK TOWARDS CANDO SHOULD CONTINUE TRACK INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL
STORM CENTER. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER MAINLY NORTH OF
THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SCT RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ND
/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS/ THROUGH THE FORENOON... SCT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTHERN RED LAKES REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON.

ELSE...EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TURNING WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN SHOULD SEE MAINLY FAIR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AND SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...THUS PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK. FAIR SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS REMAINING
QUITE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WETTER ECMWF HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...FROM AN INVERTED
TROF IN ERN SD. HAVE KEPT WITH THE DRY TREND ACROSS THIS AREA FOR
NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WINDS AND FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IN MOISTURE
OVERTIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES FOR
THE PERIOD. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.

TEMPS INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR
TWO FOR SAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

ALL SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS NOW AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR CLOUD TRENDS OR ANY FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS TAF TREND OF SOME SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
SOMETIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS A CLEARING TREND LOOKS REASONABLE BUT
THEN STALLS AFTER DARK. HAVE POSTPONED THE SCATTERING OUT BY A FEW
MORE HOURS AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST IF NEED BE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD TRENDS DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ADDING ANY FOG
AT THIS POINT EITHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON






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