Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WAVE TO AFFECT THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN SNOW BAND WITH LATEST
SOLUTIONS TRENDING FARTHER WEST AND LATER ARRIVAL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UTILIZED BLEND ALONG WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE.

FIRST WEAKER WAVE TO AFFECT MAINLY NW MN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SO FAR UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UNIMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH LIFT IS WEAK GFS CLIPS NE FA WITH LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 290K SURFACE AND CURRENTLY
LINING UP PRETTY WELL WITH CANADIAN RETURNS. FARTHER WEST COLUMN
GRADUALLY MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONGER
WAVE. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR WEST
CLOSER TO 00Z. BY THIS TIME COLUMN LOOKS TO HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
COOLED SO THAT PRIMARY PHASE WILL BE -SN. WITH COOLING COLUMN
DURING THE DAY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MODEST BUT STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

-SN WILL CONTINUE SPREAD EAST TONIGHT WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS
SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE VALLEY WEST.
GEM/NAM FARTHEST EAST WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEPING HIGHEST QPF IN
CENTRAL ND POSSIBLY CLIPPING WESTERN FA. WITH MODEL TRENDS AND
CURRENT SOLUTIONS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WILL BE. SINCE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE TONIGHT AND LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES/STATEMENTS AND
TRYING TO PIN POINT MAIN SNOW BAND. STILL LOOKING LIKE GENERAL 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS.

LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AM FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MINIMAL
COOLING BEHIND THE LOW AND DEGREE OF CLEARING AND POTENTIAL SNOW
COVER WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. RESPECTABLE WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP AND COULD SEE SOME RISING
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE NE FA.

SOME LINGERING -SN OVER THE FAR NE MONDAY OTHERWISE REGION WILL BE
DRY BREEZY AND MILD.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE
DOWNSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES
ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
WILL BE PREFERRED.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE MAINLY
EAST. TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES WEST AND INCREASED IN THE
EAST FOR WED AND THU. TEMPS INCREASE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FRI FROM
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEAR SKY. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...TAKING OVER THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BY LATER
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG






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