Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...WITH
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO (UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY). AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ALTHOUGH RADAR WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO DETECT THESE
CIRCULATIONS...WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS. NOT SURE ABOUT COVERAGE...BUT
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE PROPAGATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET (AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY) ADVECTS. THE NAM WOULD
SUGGEST A HIGHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BEST SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODELS TARGETING NORTH DAKOTA WITH DECENT
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...HIGHER CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CONSALL SOLUTION FURTHER RAISE THU THROUGH SAT
POPS. SUNDAY MAY SEE A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
DAY 7. WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING SOLAR...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE SUN/MON TIMEFRAME WHEN
COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN MAY LIMIT DAYTIME TO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CONDS WITHIN AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AS
WELL AS MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUD DECKS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE MVFR
RANGE. WINDS ACROSS EASTERN ND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN VCNTY OF TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS OVER TVF AND BJI WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF MVFR RANGE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




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