Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






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