Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071154
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

STILL SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS FAR SE ND AND INTO
LAKES COUNTRY. EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR ISO/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA INTO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CUT POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANY
PRECIP WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND APPROACH OF AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY IN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW PATTERN. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER CENTRAL ND AS OF 08Z. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS INTO THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALBERTA...AND ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THE
FORMER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ND DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL BE ONE
POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND
POSITION OF A WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO C MN DURING THE AFTERNOON
MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE NAM DOES SHOW UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40 TO
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE SOUTH...SO IT DOES BEAR WATCHING.
FARTHER NORTH...SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE
PLACE PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN WE GET
THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW HAIL
OR WIND PRODUCING STORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING. ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT QUITE A FEW DRY HOURS TODAY...WITH
THE 03Z HOPWRF DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. DIURNAL
CU DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AND THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK GENERALLY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE...BUT STILL QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SFC RIDGING FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FOR THU THROUGH SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND FAIRLY WARM THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE THU NIGHT INTO FRI FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH THE
ECMWF COOLER AND FAIRLY DRY WITH THE GFS A BIT WARMER WITH MORE NW
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OVER THE
PAST FEW MONTHS...HARD TO SAY ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE DRY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT DID KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDER AT TAFS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION UNCERTAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA TOO LOW TO MENTION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND MAY GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VALLEY WESTWARD. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







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