000
FXUS63 KFGF 210009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CONTINUING TO WATCH WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA...AND SO FAR THEY ARE
REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
CONSIDERING THERE IS NO STRONG MECHANISM TO MIX THE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. LAV GUIDANCE IS DOING WELL WITH CURRENT WIND SPEEDS...AND
INDICATES 30-40MPH WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THE RAP INDICATES WINDS ALOFT (925MB)
REMAIN AOA 35 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z TUE. WILL EXTENT THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL 15Z TUE.

STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH AN AREA
OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND WILL NOT ADJUST POPS TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS ACROSS THE SE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.

FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016.

MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB