Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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985 FXUS63 KFGF 031458 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 958 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few weak thunderstorms possible north of Highway 2 this afternoon then a nice weekend in store. - First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Winds are starting to gust to 25 to 35 mph along parts of the Red River Valley and Devils Lake Basin. Clouds are also starting to work their way across Eastern North Dakota and coming up from the south as well. There were some brief showers near Cando and Langdon this morning. Still a chance to see some isolated thunderstorms with lightning as the main threat this afternoon/evening. UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers continue to shift north and east affect just the northern tier of counties along the intl border with the low now centered in far southwest Ontario. No changes to the forecast with all aspects on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers coming to an end for most this morning with a few remaining along the international border yet. Clouds continue to clear quickly behind the rain with at least a few hours of sun likley south of HWY 200 today. Along HWY 2 and north another piece of energy will rotate around the parent trough with associated PVA and low level cold air advection causing the formation of scattered showers/thundershowers across northern areas this afternoon. Resulting CAPE from the steepening lapse rates could top 100-200 j/kg. Not unreasonable to see some small hail with this though shallow storm tops to <6km and minimal depth in the HGZ would likely limit any hail that does occur to pea size. Not expecting much in terms of rain accumulation this afternoon with the 25th/75th showing 0.10" to 0.25" primarily north of HWY 2 though a few of these showers depending on the exact track of the wave could make it a bit further south towards HWY 200. This evening a band of h850 fgen in South Dakota will shift east bringing shower chances across the far southern valley into west central Minnesota though a quick forward speed should limit amounts to under 0.25". Shortwave ridging then begins to move in behind this pair of Friday waves with the bulk of the clouds clearing through the day on Saturday leaving a nice end to the weekend with highs climbing into the 60s and an outside chance (10%) at 70s in the valley. The nice weather doesnt last long however as another upper low barrels east from the rockies becoming very negatively tilted as it reaches the Dakotas Monday. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level flow wil also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. CWASP values are currently forecast to be the highest we have seen yet this year with CSU ML highlighting our area in a 5% chance for severe weather. Whether this threat materializes will remain to be seen but between the strong kinematics and moisture return at least a few necessary ingredients will likely be in place. Taking a step back and just looking at QPF probs best chances for over 1" look to be in western and central North Dakota through Wednesday AM. 25th/75th would generally result in 0.5-1.5" for the forecast area. Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Once clouds clear TVF in the next hour all sites will be briefly VFR this morning before a SCT/BKN deck at 020-030 moves in for northern sites. Winds quickly pick up this morning with strong cold advection and eventual shower activity beginning by the early afternoon for DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI. Could showers stay north and be a non factor but error on side of caution. Gusts to 25 kts this afternoon will die off around sunset with MVFR OVC for FAR/BJI tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...TT