Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180811
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

As surface low over far se Mn shifts east, wrap around -ra should
be ending across the far se. Will monitor radar trends to see if
pops will be warranted. By late morning winds through the mixed
layer drop off to around 15kts so diminishing winds in order.
Drier air moving in and with high convective temperatures once
clearing takes over not anticipating any sc/cu development. Even
with eventual solar temperatures will be well below average with
highs in the 50s to around 60.

Frost main impact tonight however unsure at this point how
widespread so will let the day shift fine tune the favored area
for frost. Most areas will see lows dropping off into the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Next upper wave will propagate into the central plains later
Friday. Appears to be a lead impulse ahead of main wave lifting
into SD so will maintain pops for later in the day. Column warms
slightly but increasing clouds will likely keep temperatures
closer to what we have had.

With upper low taking a more nw track through the FA rain chances
will increase from south to north Friday night with best rain
potential Saturday as low lifts through. With clouds and rain
high temperatures only in the 40s and 50s. Wrap around rain to
continue Saturday night over all but the far west.

For Sunday...a slow moving surface system continues to push
northeast crossing Lake Superior into southern Ontario...with some
wrap around moisture affecting the eastern portion of the forecast
area with light precipitation.

For Monday through the end of the period...the upper trof shifts
east and the upper ridge begins to shift across the Dakotas and
Minnesota. Temperatures are expected to start off cooler under the
upper trof...but rebound by the end of the period as the ridge
shifts east. Otherwise...little to no precipitation is expected at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Some MVFR ceilings hanging on around KBJI, and slightly higher
stratus deck of 4000 ft at KFAR. Those lower clouds will
eventually slide southeastward by morning. Cirrus clouds further
north, and those TAF sites should remain VFR throughout the
period. Winds will continue to be breezy overnight with 15 to 20
kt north winds and higher gusts. Some slight reduction tomorrow,
but winds will not drop below 12 kts until tomorrow evening.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Voelker
AVIATION...JR



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