000
FXUS63 KFGF 140236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE IS TO SLOW DOWN
PROGRESSION OF POPS INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THINK THAT ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GIVEN THAT ANY
PRECIP IS STILL OUT OVER MT AND SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING QPF COMING IN. CONTINUED TO KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
THE SIZE OF THE DRY LAYER THAT MODEL SOUNDING SHOW HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME...THINK THAT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT.
WINDS AND A VERY WARM START SHOULD KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S
EVEN WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER ALL DAY AND LOWS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S.

TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK WINDY WITH STRONG MIXING BEHIND THE
NEXT TROUGH AXIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE WINDS THAT WILL BE
MIXED WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY. THINK THAT AT LEAST
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SOME
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WATCH RIDE FOR NOW AND TAKE A
LOOK AT IT AGAIN WHEN ALL 00Z MODELS ARE IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. SAT SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WIND SHIFT LINE IN NORTHWESTERN MN AND RADAR HAS A FEW WEAK ECHOES
STARTING TO POP UP. HOWEVER...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE 30
TO 40 DEGREE RANGE SO DO NOT THINK ANYTHING WILL REACH THE GROUND
AT THIS POINT.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

TEMPS REALLY SURGING ALONG THE WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS
RIGHT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE EVEN BUMPING UP INTO THE UPPER
80S. NOT REALLY SEEING A GOOD DRY PUSH THOUGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION DOWN TOWARD VALLEY CITY. SINCE IT SEEMS RELATIVELY ISOLATED
WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT AND MODELS ALSO HAVE LOW
LEVEL WINDS DECREASING AFTER 21Z. NOT SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM CLOUD
COVER RIGHT NOW SO MOST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. STILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE NEXT SFC LOW
MOVES THRU. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY OR MOISTURE BUT SHOWALTER
INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. LIKE TODAY NOT EXPECTING A SOAKING
RAIN BY ANY MEANS.

THE BIGGER ISSUE ON TUE WILL BE STRONG WINDS AGAIN. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES WEST-NW WINDS WILL CRANK UP AGAIN. YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUNS SHOWED MUCH STRONGER WINDS AND THEN THE 00Z RUNS FROM LAST
NIGHT STARTED A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND. STILL SEEING THOSE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SPEEDS ON THE AMERICAN MODELS TODAY AT 12Z. ECMWF SHOWS THE
STRONGEST 850MB WIND SPEEDS AT ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE TODAY
MANY LOCATIONS WERE SO CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IT MAY EITHER BE
A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY TUE OR A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING. WILL
LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AS THE STRONG WINDS
SHOULD NOT GET INTO THE KDVL REGION UNTIL AROUND NOON TUE. WEB
CAMS AT KDVL STILL SHOW A LITTLE ICE LEFT AND IF THIS ICE DOES
NOT GO OUT BEFORE NOON TUE THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ICE PUSHING
ON EAST/SE SHORES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

HIGHS WED AND THU SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID 70S WITH LESS
WIND. LEFT SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF OVER OTHER
EXTENDED MODELS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
WHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUN.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE FCST AREA SUN NITE INTO EARLY
TUES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY FORM AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN OVER MN BY SUN. THE NET RESULTS WILL BE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
MOST PRONOUNCED PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU/FRI THEN COOLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THINK THAT WE SHOULD START TO DECOUPLE AROUND 02Z OR SO AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE AT THAT POINT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 06 TO 18Z TIME FRAME BUT NOT
CONDFIDENT THAT ONE WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SO KEPT MENTION OUT
OTHER THAN SOME VCSH. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER
BOUNDARY MOVES IN AND WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST EVEN STRONGER
THAN TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTS OVER
30 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

A FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH RH
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN ND AND MOST OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN.
VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND FROM 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MIN RHS APPEAR JUST ABOVE THE CRITERIA THRESHOLD
HOWEVER GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
FUELS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS WARRANTED. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ROSEAU
TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AND N BELTRAMI AREAS WHERE LESS WIND AND
POSSIBLY MORE CLOUDS AND OR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP RHS UP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE RED RIVER AT OSLO...DRAYTON
AND PEMBINA. RIVER STAGES AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE CONTINUING A
SLOW RECESSION...WITH STAGES AT OSLO FALLING MORE RAPIDLY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER POINTS ON THE MAINSTEM RED AND ON THE ND/MN
TRIBUTARIES SHOW RECEDING OR NEARLY STEADY LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JR
FIRE WEATHER...JK
HYDROLOGY...SPEICHER