Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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281
FXUS63 KFGF 261947
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Cloud cover and fog redevelopment throughout the period will be
the main forecast issue.

Water vapor loop shows southwesterly flow aloft with a weak
shortwave approaching the Dakotas through eastern MT. A few of the
global models have some spits of precip later tonight as that
shortwave comes through, but none of high resolution models do. Given
that current radar returns to our west are not very impressive
will lean towards the drier solution. The bigger issue will be
cloud cover. Clouds have pushed out of the Devils Lake Basin this
afternoon, although the clearing line seems to have stalled on
top of a Hallock to Grand Forks to Cooperstown line. Weak surface
high pressure across the area will not move much tonight. winds
will be be fairly light again, with a little bit better pressure
gradient across the Devils Lake Basin. Think that clouds will
begin to fill in again as the upper shortwave trough approaches,
plus there is the possibility of stratus expanding back to the
northwest. Fog formation will also be possible, and think the best
chances will be in the area of lightest winds. Have patchy fog
across the northwestern counties with areas of fog further south
and east.

Tomorrow, winds will begin to pick up a bit as a trough of low
pressure develops to the west and the high moves off to the east.
Even with northeast to east winds there should be some warmer
925mb temps moving in from the west as weak upper ridging
approaches. How much warming will again be very dependent on cloud
cover. Think that with better winds we should get some clearing
across the area late in the day, so kept highs near 40 north to
the mid 50s in the south.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Relatively quiet period precipitation wise as region remains in the
northern stream of a general split flow pattern with main energy to
our south.  A couple of northern stream waves, one midweek, and
another towards the end of the period will bring some modest pcpn
chances to the region. Model differences on pcpn coverage for each
event justify the general low pops.  Thermal profiles fairly
consistent through the period with no big warm or cool down so
temperatures should fairly steady with highs around 50 and lows in
the 30s.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Some clearing across the northwest forecast area with VFR
conditions in KDVL. The other sites remain IFR to MVFR. Think that
KGFK could see some improvement to VFR for a while this afternoon
but the sites further south and east will stay in the stratus as
the clearing line stalls out. Some lower visibilities are possible
again tonight across the southern and eastern forecast area as
winds become light again. Have some vis down to 1/2SM at KBJI,
KTVF, and KFAR and it is possible that it could go lower in some
spots. Ceilings will be under 1000 ft for all TAF sites as more
stratus moves in overnight. There could be some improvement to
MVFR by late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and
variable for much of the period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...JR



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