Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING MAINLY
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN SOME
CLEARING BUT THE REST OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED CLOUDY. LOWERED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MANY SITES ARE STILL IN THE 60S. MOST OF
THE CURRENT PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN CWA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WE COULD
GET SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WEB CAMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST SOME
RAIN STARTING TO REACH THE GROUND AND RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INTENSIFYING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCATTERED
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER THAN WE ORIGINALLY HAD
IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. KEPT POPS MOSTLY
SCATTERED EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IN THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT COMING DOWN LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING...SHIFTING POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. RADAR INDICATED SOME THUNDER NORTHWEST OF FARGO AND NEAR
WARROAD MN. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HCO TO
NEW ROCKFORD. SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGE MADE A THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

DIFFERENT REGIMES FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF FOR
TODAY. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MT. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER LEVEL JET
WAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE 700 HPA THETA-E RIDGE. RAIN AND THETA-E
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM TODAY IS A DRY LAYER
IS FORECAST BETWEEN 850 AND 700 HPA THAT PRECIP ALOFT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME. LOW CIGS OVER NEB FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND FOG LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING NORTH.

EAST WEST CROSS SECTION SUGGEST A FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND A FRONT
ALOFT FOLLOWS FRI NIGHT AND LATER FRI NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. PROBLEM
WITH DRY LAYER REMAINS AT LOW LEVELS.

MODELS FORECAST A 120+ KNOT UPPER JET TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AND 500 HPA TEMPS FALL BELOW -20C
ON SAT. WILL GO FOR THUNDER FRI NIGHT/SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA.  MODELS COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVE A 500 MB
LOW OVER IDAHO MOVE EAST AND THE NORTHEAST WED-THU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT CONFIDENCE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WED
EXITING THURSDAY.  MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WRN MINNESOTA.  AREA OFFICES TONED DOWN POPS
GIVEN FROM ALL BLEND TOOL ON FRIDAY AS IT WASNT SUPPORTED BY
MODELS.  OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
EXIT KFAR/KTVF/KBJI. THINK KFAR/KTVF SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WHILE KBJI MAY TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER. AFTER THESE GO
THINK ONLY SOME MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. LAST THING TO
WATCH WILL BE THE WIND SWITCH. SOUTH-SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
TO THE WEST-SW AND THEN FINALLY WEST TO NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME AT KDVL/KGFK WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OR ACROSS OUR MN FA RIGHT NOW. NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD GET GOING ACROSS THE KDVL REGION BY SAT
MORNING SO WILL ONLY MENTION AT KDVL FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






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