065
FXUS65 KFGZ 022054
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
155 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions continue this
afternoon and again Friday. However, wind speeds begin to increase
Saturday, becoming strong on Sunday, especially north and east of
the Mogollon Rim. This will be mainly dry pattern, the main impacts
will be the winds and a noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A fair and mild day is expected for the rest of today
and again Friday. Daytime winds will remain fairly light, but a few
areas in the High Country may see gusts from 20-25 mph. Things start
to turn much windier over the weekend, as a strong trough impacts
the west.

A deep, late-season upper low will enter Northern California on
Saturday, then will move east-southeast through the Great Basin on
Sunday and across the Rockies on Monday.

This trajectory will keep us fairly dry, but will be a major wind
producer, especially on Sunday, as a cold front moves through our
area. We expect winds to hit just under Wind Advisory criteria on
Saturday. However, Sunday will feature a fairly large area of Wind
Advisory criteria, maybe some High Wind Warning criteria east of
Flagstaff.

Additionally, low relative humidity values will occur within the
areas featuring the strongest winds Sunday afternoon. There has been
some discussion concerning fuels and how dry we actually are, with
lowland grasses already curing, but a robust green-up now underway
on the Mogollon Rim. At the very least, areas north and east of the
Mogollon Rim may be near Critical Fire Weather conditions for Sunday
afternoon, but further analysis of fuels may necessitate a Red Flag
Warning.

After our cool day on Sunday, winds will back off a bit, but will
remain breezy into the early part of next week. We remain dry and
temperatures will recover to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 02/18Z through Friday 03/18Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period, with isolated high clouds
after 21Z. Look for W-SW winds 10-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts
throughout the afternoon. Lighter winds return after 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 03/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the outlook period, with increasing cloud
cover expected on Sunday. W-SW winds of 5-15 kts forecast for
Friday, before gusty winds return over the weekend. Wind gusts
25-35 kts possible on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Warm/dry weather expected
to continue. Look for west-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday,
becoming south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph on
Saturday. Minimum RH values will range between 10-30%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions
expected on Sunday. Expect southwest winds 25-35 kts, gusting 40-50
kts. Localized areas along higher terrain could see stronger winds.
Temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday, with breezy afternoon
conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff