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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210825
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/
/Through Monday Afternoon/

Not all is lost if you were wanting at least half of your weekend
to be salvageable for outdoor activities. However, widespread
rainfall the past 24 hours will likely result in very saturated
soils, as well as swollen creeks and rivers across the area. The
heavier axis of rainfall that models had across especially eastern
Central Texas ended up being flipped as heavier rainfall of 1 to
3" ended occur along and north of I-20 and across all of North
Texas. However, Central Texas wasn`t completely left out with most
areas seeing 0.5 to 1.5". There was a few isolated, higher
rainfall exceptions from Dallas east into northern Ellis Co and
into Kaufman Co, as well as northeastern Wise Co into far northern
Denton/far southern Cooke counties where isolated 4"+ amounts
fell. Dallas Love Field saw their daily record for 4/20 shattered
with 4.22" (old record was 2.09"). DFW airport set a record with
2.34" (old record 1.52"). Waco Regional Airport, though less still
enjoyed a nice rainfall of 1.25" for the date (well below the
record of 3.44").

Fortunately, strong subsidence behind our departing mid level
disturbance and a rapid intrusion of drier air from the north will
help to scatter out the low level cloud canopy by this afternoon.
Partly to mostly sunny afternoon skies will allow temperatures to
recover into the lower to mid 60s after a very cool start in the
mid 40s to the lower 50s with strong ridging at the surface.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph and mostly cloudy skies may make it
feel a bit chilly this morning, but compared to the the stormy
conditions and 50s on Saturday it`ll be a nicer day in comparison.
A broad surface ridge arrives tonight with dry northwest flow
aloft. Outside of a few passing high clouds, the light winds and
mostly clear conditions allow for the area to fall well into the
40s. With the saturated soils, I can`t rule out some patchy ground
(or as some call it, graveyard fog) to form in the rural areas by
sunrise Monday. This moisture should also help lows stay up a few
degrees than say if the ground was dry. Light southerly winds will
slowly return on Monday, as northwest flow transition to a low
amplitude ridge aloft. This will result in sunny conditions with
highs around 70 degrees for the entire region.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

Return flow will already be in place Monday night, and will
strengthen on Tuesday as North and Central Texas becomes
positioned between a cold front to the north, dryline to the west,
and surface ridge to the east. The resulting narrow pressure
gradient will increase south winds to 15-25 MPH with occasional
higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge
will strengthen overhead, helping to return temperatures to near-
normal values for the midweek period. The front will stall near
or just north of the Red River, providing as focus for isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours
both Tuesday and Wednesday. The presence of the ridge will
preclude more widespread convection, and POPs will be limited to
areas generally north of the I-20 corridor (closest to the front
and farthest from the ridge axis).

The front will retreat north on Thursday as a shortwave trough
advances east through the Four Corners region and a lee surface
trough deepens. Any thunderstorms which would affect the region
Thursday afternoon and evening would need to initialize near the
dryline, which should still be located well west of the forecast
area. A strong capping inversion may end up shutting off
convection as it attempts to move east into the region, keeping
any POPs in the slight chance range. Slightly better storm chances
will occur on Friday as the shortwave lifts northeast through the
Plains and the dryline shifts farther east to near Highway 281.
Thunderstorms which fire near the surface boundary would likely
survive the trek across the I-35 corridor Friday evening before
dissipating overnight Friday night. Some of the Friday storms
would likely have a potential to produce large hail, though it is
still a bit too soon to speculate on all of the severe weather
parameter details.

Unsettled weather will continue next weekend as a deeper upper
trough takes shape over the western CONUS, providing additional
chances for thunderstorms across the region. A lead shortwave will
lift northeast through the plains on Saturday, generating another
possible round of dryline-induced convection Saturday afternoon
and evening (similar to Friday). The main trough will eventually
move through the Plains next Sunday into the following Monday,
providing additional storm chances, with activity focused along an
attendant Pacific front.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Improving flying conditions for both commercial and private
aviation continues to occur rapidly within the D10 airspace,
especially the DFW Metro airports where VFR cigs AoA 5 kft will
only continue to rise and become broken after sunrise. Waco
Regional Airport will remain impacted by slow rising MVFR cigs
through 12z, but similar trends will occur later this morning and
afternoon.

Strong subsidence immediately in wake of the departing upper
disturbance and MCS over Southeast Texas will combine with a
rapid intrusion of dry air below 850mb for a continued improvement
throughout the day.

Northerly sustained surface winds around 5 to 10 kts will veer
northeasterly at 10-15 kts later this morning, before diminishing
later this afternoon and becoming near calm after nightfall this
evening.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  47  71  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                64  46  70  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  43  68  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              63  45  69  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            64  44  70  54  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              66  47  71  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  45  70  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           65  46  70  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              64  46  70  53  79 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  44  70  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$