443
FXUS65 KGGW 262109
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
309 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Red Flag Warning continues until 8 pm today for gusty winds
and low relative humidity.

2) Dry conditions are also expected on Saturday but lighter winds
will decrease fire weather concerns.

3) A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The latest HREF shows the probability of both wind gusts greater
than 25 mph and relative humidity less than 25 percent will be as
high as 50 percent this afternoon in the eastern Fire Weather
Zones. The Red Flag Warning will remain in place until 8 pm for
the dry and gusty conditions expected at times. In addition, while
breezy conditions will continue tonight, they are not supportive
of Lake Wind headlines.

On Saturday, ridging will maintain an influence and lead to
another dry day across NE Montana, but lighter winds are forecast
to keep fire weather concerns contained.

A more zonal pattern next week is still favored by the ensembles
into next week with a series of shortwaves leading to a more
progressive weather pattern and thus the potential for showers at
times.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Very high confidence exists for the FWZs 120 and 122 on Red Flag
Conditions being met at times through this evening, while moderate
confidence exists further west over FWZ due to somewhat lighter
winds.

Predictability for shower chances next week will be low given the
difficulty in timing and tracking individual shortwaves. That
said, messaging for chances for showers at times with
probabilities close to NBM seem the best course of action for now.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue into tonight with midlevel clouds at times. Look
for winds becoming northeast this evening and decreasing to 10 to
20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for FWZs 120, 122, and 134
due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. Confidence is
greatest in the east due to the presence of wind gusts between 35
and 45 mph along with humidity around 20 percent.

On Saturday, dry conditions are favored with NBM mean RH values
dropping to 20 to 25 percent area wide, but lighter winds will
keep fire concerns contained overall.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow