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000
FXUS63 KGID 132300
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday looking to bring another day of highs in the 80s, with
  mostly sunny skies. Winds expected to top out around 15 MPH,
  turning more east then southeasterly with time during the day.

- A strong upper level system will bring increasing chances for
  thunderstorms to the area Monday, with the best chances
  favoring the mid-late evening and overnight hours. There will
  be the potential for storms to be strong/severe...and though
  hail/wind look to be the primary hazards, an isolated tornado
  cannot be totally ruled out.

- Precipitation chances continue on into Tuesday as the system
  pushes east through the heart of the Central Plains. Along
  with precipitation chances, this system`s passage will usher
  in strong northwesterly winds across the entire area. Gusts
  over 45 MPH will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently on through Sunday...

Been an overall quiet, but notably warmer, start to the weekend.
Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data show generally zonal
flow in place across the region today, with a subtle shortwave
disturbance moving though the Central Plains this afternoon.
Outside of some additional mid-upper level clouds passing
through, hasn`t been much impact from this disturbance, but a
few models have continued to hint at the potential for a few
isolated showers/weak storms to clip western/southern edges of
the forecast area so did keep that mention going through early
evening. At the surface, the main feature affecting our area is
a trough axis from low pressure over the central/eastern border
area of ND/SD, extending south trough the Sandhills and into
western KS. This has kept winds today south-southwesterly, with
speeds closer to 5-10 MPH in the far WNW but closer to 15-25 MPH
with gusts near 30 in the far ESE. Following highs on Friday in
the 60s-70s, as of 3PM we`ve climbed well into the 70s and 80s
(first 80 degree reading of 2024 for many spots - especially in
the northern half of the forecast area), and even right around
90 (first 90s of the year) in extreme SSW portions. Made no
changed to the ongoing Red Flag Warning area in north central
KS, the combo of strongest gusts/lowest relative humidity as
remained in that area...though it may be a close call to hitting
criteria in the Nuckolls/Thayer County area.

Dry forecast expected overnight and on into Sunday, with little
change in the generally zonal upper level flow...while the main
storm system that will be the focus of the start of the new work
week pushes in from the West Coast. The surface trough axis
currently draped through our far west is expected to sink further
southeast through the forecast area tonight...further diminishing
winds this evening and eventually switching them to the NNW by
sunrise Sunday. During the day on Sunday, between surface high
pressure sinking southeast out of central Canada and low pressure
starting to organize over the lee side of the Rockies, winds turn
more east, then southeast through the day. Speeds look to top out
around 15 MPH, but a few gusts closer to 20 MPH during the
afternoon hours is not out of the question. Expecting plenty
of sun...with highs forecast to reach the low-mid 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...

The main upper level low currently spinning just off the CA coast
pushes inland on Sunday, and by 12Z Monday models are in pretty
good agreement showing it centered over far southern UT.
During the daytime hours the system looks to gradually shift
east, only ending up over far western CO by 00Z. At the surface,
the day is expected to start out with elongated low pressure
draped through the High Plains, and a weaker warm frontal
boundary extending eastward across KS (confidence in its exact
location isn`t high at this point). Surface low pressure deepens
during the day roughly in the CO/NE/KS border area, drawing
that warm front boundary north and increasing south-
southeasterly winds across the forecast area. Certain forecast
elements have more confidence than others on Monday...one of the
less confident ones is with temperatures...driven mainly by how
socked in with lower level moisture/stratus and lower temps
from the NAM. At this point the forecast is driven more toward
the warmer solutions, with highs int he mid 80s...the NAM
suggest many spots would be lucky to hit 70. Outside of the NAM,
models generally showing overall little going on precip-wise
during the 12Z-00Z time frame...with chances mainly ramping up
during the evening-overnight hours as the main upper low pushes
out onto the Central Plains. But do have some 20-30 percent
chances of storms during the afternoon hours across the central
and northeastern portions of the forecast area...for the
potential for any activity to develop along that lifting warm
front. Plenty of differences between models with how much/if any
activity develops along that boundary prior to sunset.

Focus on Monday will also be on the location of the surface
dryline, which will be creeping east with time on Monday,
potentially providing fire weather concerns for the forecast
area. See fire weather section below for more information. This
dry line is also another focus for thunderstorm
development...starting off late afternoon/early area south of
our area across portions of KS/OK and spreading further north
with time. For our area, latest models are in general agreement
showing our `main show` being mid-late evening and on through
the overnight hours (mainly after dark)...but there are still
some notable differences between models with the
evolution/timing/coverage of storms...so confidence is not
overly high at this point. Models show that storms do
develop/move in will have sufficient instability/deeper layer
shear to potentially be strong/severe...and while hail/winds
would be the main hazards, lower level shear is enough that a
tornado couldn`t be totally ruled out.

As we get into Tuesday, the main upper low itself is continuing
to slide east, but models have some difference to iron out
with its path...at 18Z its location ranging from north central
NE to the eastern NE/KS border area. Not surprisingly, this
results in a wider range of precipitation chance
possibilities...the northern solution (NAM) dries us out much
quicker than the southern ones (GFS/ECMWF)...and again the
forecast is trended more toward the GFS/ECMWF and have anywhere
from 50-90 percent chances lingering all day Tuesday. How much
of a severe threat lingers into Tuesday is uncertain...but its
not out of the question there are issues continuing into the
morning hours, especially if the system slows at all. Expect
cooler temps for Tuesday (60s/low 70s)...and as the system
departs to the east, increasing northwesterly winds. Gusts over
45 MPH are possible.

Wednesday an on...

This early work week system and its precipitation taper off to
an end Tuesday night...and much of the day on Wednesday
currently looks to be dry. Increasing lift from an upper low
over central Canada and southward extending through axis will
bring increasing chances for precip back to the forecast mainly
Wed evening/night...with some question how long it could linger
into Thursday. Rest of the forecast period through Saturday has
additional low chances (20 percent) for precipitation Thur
night-early Fri and again Fri night- early Sat. Overall
confidence in these chances is pretty low.

This pattern looks to usher in cooler temperatures...with 60s/near
70 on Wednesday falling back into the low-mid 50s by Fri/Sat. Sub-
freezing overnight lows are forecast both Friday and Saturday
mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The winds taper off this evening and will become ENE behind a
cold front that moves through the TAF sites tomorrow. The
gradient tightens tomorrow afternoon which will allow for gusts
into the low 20s. VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Though Sunday brings another round of relative humidity values
dropping into the upper teen-mid 20 percent range...the expected
east-northeasterly winds are expected to top out around 15 MPH,
perhaps a few gusts closer to 20 MPH. No fire weather headlines
are expected at this time.

Monday has the potential to be a bigger concern due to the
expected stronger southeasterly winds area-wide...with gusts
near 45 MPH possible. The main question is where the surface dry
line ends up during the afternoon. Ahead of this boundary,
dewpoints are expected to climb into the 50s, with relative
humidities bottoming out near 30 percent. Behind this boundary,
dewpoints dropping into the 30s will be possible, as will
relative humidities falling to near/below 20 percent. The best
potential for these lower RH values looks to be west of Highway
183...but confidence in exactly where that dry line ends up is
on the lower side at this time. Decided to hold off on a Fire
Weather Watch at this time and will see how upcoming model runs
trend.

Strong winds are expected again on Tuesday, switching around to
the northwest. However, lingering precipitation is likely...and
while there is uncertainty with the overall coverage, even in
areas that may end up dry, cooler temperatures look to keep
relative humidity values from dropping below 30-40 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Following is a rundown of record and forecast high temperatures for
Sun/Mon, and also record and forecast low/minimum temperatures for
Mon/Tues at both Grand Island/Hastings airports (the two
stations for which we issue formal Record Event Reports/RERs).

Although all eight of the daily records listed below are currently
forecast to be "safe", it could be a somewhat close call for Sunday
highs and especially Tuesday lows.


- RECORD HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY-MONDAY:

GRAND ISLAND
                     Record High     Forecast
Sunday April 14th    89 (2003)         85
Monday April 15th    94 (2002)         86


HASTINGS
                     Record High     Forecast
Sunday April 14th    89 (2002-03,1940) 84
Monday April 15th    95 (2002)         84


- RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS MONDAY-TUESDAY

GRAND ISLAND
                   Record Warm Low   Forecast
Monday April 15th    61 (2002-03,1896) 54
Tuesday April 16th   54 (2006)         53 at 11:59 PM Tues night


HASTINGS
                   Record Warm Low   Forecast
Monday April 15th     62 (2002)        54
Tuesday April 16th    57 (2016)        54 at 11:59 PM Tues night

NOTE: in order for a new record warm low/minimum temperature to
become official it has to "survive" the entire 24-hour calendar day
(in other words, it is not always based solely on the early-AM low
temp).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Beda
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch