301
FXUS63 KGID 300540
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence is low (around 20%) on thunderstorm occurrence
  within the forecast area on Tuesday, but storms may become
  strong to severe if they develop during the afternoon.

- There is a better chance (up to 60%) of thunderstorms on
  Wednesday and up to a 90% chance Wednesday night. These storms
  may become severe.

- High temperatures will be in the 60s to 80s and low
  temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s across the forecast
  area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is centered over the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest. Winds are mostly out of the southwest across south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures
today will warm up into the upper 60s to upper 70s with mostly sunny
skies. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s with southerly winds and increasing clouds.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northward over
Canada on Tuesday with another upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains. This trough will expand
southward over Nebraska with a cold front moving into the area on
Tuesday. Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to warm up
into the lower 70s to mid 80s. Some showers will be possible (up to
near 30% chance) Tuesday morning for mainly areas along and north of
the Nebraska Tri-Cities area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the afternoon and evening hours along the cold
front. There is some uncertainty as to whether these storms will
impact the eastern edges of the local forecast area or develop
completely east of the area. These storms could be strong to severe
if they were to impact eastern portions of the area. Low
temperatures are expected to cool into the lower 40s to lower 50s
Tuesday night with easterly winds.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (up to around a 40%
chance) Wednesday morning as an upper disturbance moves over the
area. Rain and storms are expected to continue into the afternoon
hours (up to near a 60% chance) as an upper trough to the west
begins to move over the region. Severe storms will be possible
(around a 40% chance) late Wednesday afternoon into the evening
mainly across north central Kansas along the leading edge of a
frontal boundary. A dryline is expected to develop across southwest
Kansas which may further initiate storm development across central
Kansas. High Temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s
across much of south central and central Nebraska to the upper 70s
across portions of north central Kansas. The NAM12 is showing a
surface low moving into south central Nebraska Wednesday
evening/night with storm development to the northwest of this
feature. Storms may develop into a line and move eastward across the
forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Low
temperatures Wednesday night are expected to be a little warmer than
the previous night.

Thursday through Sunday night...

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Thursday with surface high pressure across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Rain and storms are expected to
move out of the area during the day on Thursday. High temperatures
will range from the low 60s to low 70s. Light winds with a surface
high are expected to be across the area Thursday night allowing
temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Southerly winds
are expected across the area on Friday with a surface high centered
across Missouri and Iowa. High temperatures will be in the 60s and
70s. An upper trough moving over the northern and central Plains is
expected to bring in a cold front beginning on Saturday. Low
temperatures Friday night will be in the 40s with highs on Saturday
in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be similar
or slightly warmer than the previous night. Winds will increase out
of the south on Sunday with temperatures warming up into the 70s.
Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Very spotty showers are possible tonight into Tuesday morning.
LLWS is also currently developing, and will last until around
14Z Tuesday morning.

Southerly winds increase in the morning before shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Any thunderstorm development in
association with this front should occur to the east of GRI/EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels