Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 230519
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light snow is possible late tonight into early Saturday
  morning for areas mainly north and east of the Tri-cities.
  Any accumulations should be very light (T-0.1" at best).

- There is a chance for non-severe thunderstorms late Saturday
  night across areas mainly south of I-80.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the area
  Sunday afternoon and evening. Half dollar sized hail and wind
  gusts near 60 mph will both be possible.

- Sunday night into Monday, a strong cold front will cross the
  local area bringing strong north winds and a chance for snow.
  A couple inches of total snowfall accumulation looks possible
  for areas mainly north and west of the Nebraska Tri-cities.

- Strong winds are a concern both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday,
  southerly winds could gust as high as 45 MPH. Sunday night
  into Monday, strong northwest winds behind a cold front could
  gust as high as 50 MPH. These strong winds Monday, combined
  with any snowfall, could result in low visibilities and
  hazardous driving conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Some low level stratus spread south to impact the Tri-cities
this morning, but is currently eroding and limited to the
eastern most fringes of the forecast area. Expect this stratus
to continue to retreat, with a mostly sunny and breezy finish to
the day. Winds will likely diminish nicely this evening as an
area surface high pressure slides south across the Missouri
River valley. A weak upper level disturbance will then skirt
the northeastern portions of the area very late tonight into
early Saturday morning, and some very light snowfall will be
possible, but meso-scale models have kept the area mostly
precip free, and confidence in anything much more than a trace
of snow with this disturbance is low.

For the daytime hours Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies again
by afternoon with increasing southerly flow, as the surface high
transitions further east and low pressure strengthens on the
lee side of the Rockies. This will begin to tighten up the
pressure gradient, with the strongest winds expected west of
Highway 281. As southerly flow increases across the local area,
low level moisture will also increase from the south, with a
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected by late
evening and through the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday
morning. Initially, instability will be somewhat limited, but
increasing through the daytime hours Sunday as dewpoints creep
upward in strong southerly flow (40+ MPH), peaking around 1000
J/KG by mid to late afternoon as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the southwest. This should help trigger
additional thunderstorm development, some of which could be
severe, during the late afternoon through evening hours Sunday.
Currently much of the area is in either a marginal or slight
risk for severe weather, with the greatest threat south of I-80.
Hail to the size of at least Half dollars and wind gusts of at
least 60 mph are both supported in latest forecast sounding
data.

Late Sunday night as the severe threat diminishes, a strong cold
front will approach from the northwest. This front will usher in
significantly cooler air along with strong northerly winds of
50+ MPH Monday. In addition, it will bring a transition of
precip to snow Monday, with a couple inches of total
accumulation possible across areas mainly northwest of the
Nebraska Tri-cities. While a shift in the upper level low a bit
further east could bring more snowfall to the area, the last few
model runs have consistently kept the heaviest bands of snow to
our west, where winter storm watches are now in effect. Given
the combination of some snowfall and very strong winds, will
likely eventually have at least a winter weather advisory
headline for parts of the local area, but felt confidence this
far out was too low to pull the trigger for any sort of
headline just yet.

As the aforementioned system shifts east on Tuesday, expect a
weak transitory ridge of high pressure to allow temperatures to
rebound to near 60 by Thursday afternoon, before the next upper
level low is forecast to cross the local area next Friday
bringing additional chances for precip to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Light snow clipping northern portions of the area over the next
few hours should mainly stay north of the terminal areas, but
can`t rule out at least some flurries at KGRI. Otherwise the
rest of this TAF period is currently dry. Potential for MVFR
ceilings sticks around for another couple hours, then VFR
conditions return. Winds remain easterly the rest of tonight,
then turn more southeasterly through the end of the period.
Gusts this afternoon/evening near 25-30 MPH will be possible at
both sites.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP


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