000
FXUS65 KGJT 192332
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
532 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and snow showers tonight for the mountains.
  Accumulations will favor the northern mountains, with mostly
  just a dusting of snow up to 3 inches on favorable aspects.

- Breezy and cloudy following a weak frontal passage on
  Saturday, with more rain and snow showers on the mountains.
  Little to no accumulation expected.

- Unsettled conditions continue through the first half of the
  week, with weak precipitation chances in the forecast. A more
  substantial storm is looking possible towards the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak trough pushing across the Great Basin this afternoon is
sending a diluted plume of moisture onto the West Slope. A few
isolated showers are finding their way to the ground in the
mountains, but dry air at the surface is eating up much of the
moisture before it can have any measurable effect this
afternoon. Winds have picked up again from the west-southwest
and are gusting around 20 to 30 mph, with elevation playing a
direct correlation to wind speeds. The main trough passage will
push through during the overnight hours tonight, with a few snow
showers likely at the higher elevations above 8-9k feet.
Accumulations are expected to be minimal with moisture in short
supply. Cloud cover will keep overnight lows tonight just above
climatology. Winds will shift more northwesterly behind the
trough on Saturday and with moisture hanging around will likely
spark a few showers across much of the high country. These
showers will stick to rain, except at the higher elevations,
with gusty outflows expected under virga showers in the valleys.
Winds will remain breezy on Saturday afternoon and cloud cover
will take some of the comfort out of an otherwise mild spring
day. It won`t be a total wash though, as valleys can expect some
holes in cloud cover to break up the gray a bit. Winds settle
towards evening and skies are expected to clear as the remaining
moisture gets scoured out by the dry air spilling over the
front of the building ridge. Overnight lows will take a dip
Sunday morning with clear skies. A few cold basins will drop
into the uppers teens and lower 20`s, while the warmer spots
will trend about 5 degrees colder than Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A slightly tilted ridge axis will be overhead Sunday as a
trough moves along the Canadian/US border. This trough will
continue to shift the ridge axis eastward while also flattening
said ridge. Any precip associated with this feature will stay
well to our north until possibly Monday afternoon. Sunday will
be a warm and sunny day with a few more clouds along the UT/CO
border and that`ll be about it. A weak cold front will drop down
from the trough and bring some showers and storms to the Front
Range with a small chance (20 to 40%) for some light precip over
the higher terrain along the Continental Divide Monday. Daytime
heating will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere and thus, the
slight chance for a quick storm to form Monday afternoon. We
shall see. Ridging starts to build back in Tuesday but another
weak wiggle in the flow will allow some isolated showers to fire
along the Divide. Limited moisture and upper level support will
keep QPF amounts to less than .1 inch so nothing significant.
Wednesday will be an in between day as the next shortwave trough
sets its sights on the CWA. Guidance is suggesting some light
precip possible across the area Thursday morning through early
Friday morning. A more potent system will be waiting in the
wings Friday onwards but plenty of time to nail down those
specifics.

High temps will continue to run warm as readings 10 to 15
degrees above more seasonal values will be common. The usual
gusty afternoon winds of 20 to 25 mph are also expected each
afternoon next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Mid and high
level clouds will continue to stream across eastern Utah and
western Colorado with a few showers possible along the
Continental Divide mountains this evening and again Saturday
afternoon. Some of these showers may approach KASE or KEGE which
could lower ceilings to ILS breakpoints for a time. Otherwise,
dry and breezy conditions will be the rule elsewhere under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT