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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000
FNUS73 KGRR 200748
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for SW Ranger and Crapo Rx Burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
348 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Partly sunny skies likely this afternoon, though some uncertainty
exists in the extent of cloud cover given the burn site will be on
the edge of cumulus development, and clouds upstream possibly having
greater coverage than expected. Winds will be from the west today at
13-17 mph gusting to around 20 mph. If sun is greater than expected
RHs may fall into the upper 30s. Precipitation is not expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 47.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 13 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........West 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1510 /excellent/ at ignition. Max...1520
                    /excellent/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........65     69     66     40     42     41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............44     45     46     45     40     37
RH..............45     41     42     41     50     59
20 ft wind......W 16   W 16   W 16   W 13   W 10   W 9
20 ft wind gust.23     23     22     20     15     13
Mix hgt (ft)....6600   6400   6200   6000   900    700
Mixing wind.....W 23   W 23   W 21   W 20   W 13   W 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Smoke disprsl...1510   1480   1280   1160   110    90

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Widespread frost
                    after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 30.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....430 (good) early in the evening decreasing to
                    40 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 18 mph increasing to 14 to 20
                    mph late in the day.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 21 mph increasing to 18 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....60 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    980 (excellent) in the afternoon increasing to
                    1130 (excellent), then decreasing to 480 (good)
                    in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Thomas
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411422.0/GRR
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov