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000
FXUS62 KGSP 160148
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
948 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will linger to our south through the first half of
the week giving our region above normal temperatures and more
humidity than we`ve felt lately. Small chances of showers and storms
do return to some areas of the mountains in the middle of the week.
A front will approach our area from the west through the middle of
the week, and could bring more showers and thunderstorms by Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening Update...Evening convection has waned due to loss of heating
and incoming ulvl ridge. Dont expect much, if any, more development
thru the overnight outside of possible isol rain showers as a sfc
bndry moves in from the north. Upper clouds and debris clouds will
linger and lows will likely be held 8-10 degrees abv normal, esp
considering the well abv normal high temps reached today.

Otherwise, on Tuesday the axis of the mid/upper ridge moves in from
the west and sharpens a bit, while a weak superimposed shortwave
moves past to our north during the day. The old frontal boundary is
expected to be draped along/near the VA line to start the day,
possibly sagging as far south as the NW Piedmont. The forcing will
not be as great, but there could be enough low level focus for new
convection in the afternoon near the boundary, so we shall continue
to carry a slight chance across the nrn tier of zones. Better
chances for deep convection will be across north central NC, where
there could be an outside chance of isolated severe storms. High
temps might be a degree or two cooler, hardly noticeable, because of
some increased afternoon cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:20 PM EDT Monday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with upper ridging lingering over the Southeast and upper
trofing moving off the New England Coast. At the same time, a closed
upper low will be lifting NE towards the Great Lakes. Over the next
couple of days, the upper low will move over the Great Lakes and
eventually get absorbed by another broad upper trof amplifying over
far southern Canada. This will flatten the ridge over our area as
the period wears on. At the sfc, a robust low pressure system will
lift out of the Great Plains and move a cold front to our doorstep
by late Wednesday. The bulk of the current model guidance continues
to trend drier with this fropa. It still looking like the boundary
will move thru our area early Thursday and should be moving off the
coast by Thurs aftn/evening. As such, I trimmed back precip chances
with slight to solid chance PoPs relegated to roughly the NW half of
our CWA for late Wed into early Thurs. Otherwise, we can expect warm,
predominately SWLY low-level flow across our area thru most of the
period with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s outside the
mtns on Thurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:05 PM EDT Monday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Friday with very broad upper trofing morphing into a large, closed
low over far south central Canada. Over the next couple of days, this
system will steadily translate eastward and over the northern Great
Lakes and open back up to the northern stream in the process. By the
latter half of the weekend, the upper low/trof will move over New
England and act to suppress the upper ridge over the Southeast.
At the sfc, our area is expected to be under a broad deformation
zone in the wake of a relatively dry fropa from the previous day.
Over the next few days, the sfc pattern will remain progressive,
with a fair amount of ambiguity amongst the operational models.
Another weak low is expected to develop Fri into Sat somewhere
over the Southeast, yet it remains unclear exactly where and how
long it will linger over the region. In addition, most of the long-
range model guidance tries to spin up another sfc low on Sunday
over the Southeast Coast. Regardless, there is decent agreement
that by the end of the period early next week, broad Canadian high
pressure will begin to spread over our area from the NW and bring
dry wx to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds continue across all TAF sites thru
the period. There is a small chance of showers or a rogue t/storm
developing near the NC sites overnight, but confidence is too low
for a TAF mention. Otherwise, mainly a wind fcst as a sfc bndry
pushes in from the north tonight and makes for ne/ly to se/ly winds
after inversion break Tue morning outside the mtns, then a shift
s/ly to sw/ly as an Atl high return flow develops by early
afternoon. At KAVL, winds persist sw/ly this evening before going
light, then become se/ly arnd noon Tue.

Outlook: Isolated SHRA/TSRA are not out of the question Tue and
Wed afternoons near the NC sites. Otherwise VFR generally will
persist through midweek. An unsettled pattern with precip chances
and periodic restrictions may develop Thu-Fri but confidence
remains low.

&&


RECORDS FOR 04-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      87 2006     42 1905     62 1945     26 1943
   KCLT      89 2006     49 1890     64 1998     29 2008
                1896                    1991        1962
                                        1945
   KGSP      88 1888     54 1903     64 1945     24 1907

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...