484
FXUS64 KHUN 110515 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 911 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight as high
pressure settles into the region. Northerly flow has advected in a
cooler and drier air mass -- and with the clear conditions
forecast it will be a good night for radiational cooling. The end
result will be a very comfortable night with low humidity as lows
drop back into the low to mid 50s. The clear sky may offer a good
opportunity for stargazing -- and perhaps if you`re lucky a brief
glimpse of the aurora.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Not too much to write about this weekend as weak ridging aloft
builds in this weekend with high pressure in place at the surface.
Skies remain mostly clear through the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.
Saturday will be breezy with west winds near 10-15 mph but the
center of the surface high will keep winds much lighter and more
variable on Sunday. Patchy fog will again be possible late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but most areas should
stay clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the
new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure
over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday
morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection
over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE
under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next
system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of
showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central
Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the
course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and
higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with
lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances
will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in
the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of
thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from
the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to
numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall
Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with
possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning
strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet
soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or
flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out
precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur.

Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the
week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds
than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in
the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the
lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday night. Clear skies
will also continue, but a few upper level clouds may stream
overhead by this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, then become west/northwesterly at around 10
knots this afternoon. Expecting winds to then quickly diminish
through the evening to be around 5 knots or less.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26