994
FXUS63 KICT 021957
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms likely Friday night into early Saturday morning with
  some strong to severe storms possible.

- Rain likely Sunday across southern and southeast KS with
  severe storms not likely.

- Severe weather episode possible on Monday afternoon/evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low situated over
far southern Saskatchewan with a vort lobe rotating into the
Upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, visible satellite shows an
MCV lifting across far northeast KS and about to move into
southeast MO. At the surface, cold front extends from east of
Kansas City to just west of Chanute and down into central OK.

Cold front will continue progressing southeast late this
afternoon and will be out of the forecast area in the 01-03z
time frame. So we will see some showers and storms linger across
far southeast KS early this evening with a clearing trend for
the remainder of the forecast area. Still looking shower/storm
free for Friday with slightly above normal temps. Another piece
of energy is expected to track across the Central Plains for Fri
into Fri night which will allow a cold front to surge south Fri
night. Confidence is increasing for an MCS to dive southeast
across much of the forecast area on Fri night into early Sat
morning, associated with the cold front. At this time it
appears there would be at least a low end severe threat with
this activity, with damaging winds possibly the main hazard.
Complex of storms will be pushing through southern KS Sat
morning with most of the area precip free by the afternoon
hours. Confidence is high in below normal temps for Sat with
highs in the 60s for most locations.

By Sat night, there is good model agreement in a deep upper low
over Northern CA with a fast moving impulse moving out of the
Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains. This feature
will spread a swath of rain across OK and southern KS late Sat
night through Sun as it moves into the Ozark region by early Sun
evening. Not looking for any strong or severe storms with this
activity with a good chance central KS remains dry. Next
potential widespread severe weather day looks to arrive on Mon
as a potent upper trough tracks across the Rockies and goes
negative tilt as it moves out across the Central Plains. The
ECMWF is further north with the upper low compared to the GFS
and thus has the southern branch of the upper jet moving into
Western KS where the GFS has it moving into western OK. Moisture
does not look like an issue with this system with the main
forecast challenge the position/timing of the dryline and upper
jet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms this afternoon and early
evening across southeast KS.

Cold front currently extends from southeast of KEMP to near
KWLD and is continuing to track slowly southeast. A line of
storms recently developed along the front and are nearly
stationary so far. So currently expecting storms to continue
this afternoon between KICT and KCNU with KCNU the only TAF site
expected to be affected by storms late this afternoon into the
early evening. Outside of a brief period of MVFR cigs at KSLN,
confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain at the
remaining sites. North winds will come around to the northeast
and eventually east by late tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL