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000
FXUS61 KILN 200610
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
210 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through the weekend and
persist into early next week. Temperatures will be below normal
over the weekend and then start to moderate on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There are some returns on radar just north of the region,
however have not seen any observations reporting precipitation.
With dry low levels and with these returns moving out of the
region, have a dry forecast overnight. Mid and high clouds will
continue to move across the region. Went close to the blend for
low temperatures with lows dropping down into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to slowly build into the area.
Gradient on the front edge of this ridge will allow for winds to
pick up again during the day but diminish again at night. There
will be some diurnal cumulus later in the day with some mid and
high clouds overnight.

Highs will be in the 50s, with a few lower 60s in far southern
counties. Lows will fall into the 30s areawide. There is the
potential for some areas in central Ohio outside of the Columbus
metro to fall to freezing. Frost is a bit of a question with
some clouds and some wind persisting as well as fairly large
dewpoint depressions. But have continued mention patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad area of strong high pressure resides in the Central
Plains on Sunday, with a central pressure of around 1030mb. The
influence of this surface high stretches across the Midwest
region towards the Atlantic coast. Bufkit soundings show
persistent northwesterly flow with saturation developing around
5000ft AGL on Sunday, which will lead to reasonable cloud
coverage across our CWA to start the day. This moisture
gradually erodes from NW to SE through the day. The combination
of northwesterly flow and ample cloud coverage will keep daytime
highs in the mid to upper 50s for most - about 10 degrees below
climatological normals. Given favorable radiative cooling
conditions Sunday night, have another mention of frost in the
grids.

High pressure influence holds through Monday and through at
least the start of the day Tuesday. As it shifts eastward,
return flow on the back side of the high will provide slightly
warmer temperatures each day. However, a shortwave H5 trough and
associated surface cold front will slide through the Ohio
Valley Tuesday night. This will increase rain coverage through
the overnight hours and leave behind seasonably cooler
temperatures once again for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the remainder of the overnight period, mid clouds will
eventually exit and thin through sunrise, leave mostly clear
skies by 12Z. Winds will be from the west/northwest near 10
knots.

For today, a broad mid level trough will remain across the
Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England. Meanwhile, at
the surface, high pressure will extend east across the Ohio
Valley. Scattered high clouds will predominate, although a FEW-
SCT diurnal cumulus clouds may develop near/north of the
northern terminals in the afternoon. It will become a little
gusty after 14Z. Winds from the northwest between 10 and 15
knots will gust between 15 and 25 knots. Gusty winds will begin
to subside after 23Z as diurnal cooling allows the atmosphere to
decouple.

For tonight, mid level energy will move east across the
southeast U.S. while an embedded disturbance digs southeast into
the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some CAA stratocumulus
clouds will creep in from the northwest. Meanwhile, mid and
high level moisture from the southern system is expected to
enhance late ahead of the northern disturbance. Thus, a mix of
stratocumulus clouds (northwest) and mid/high clouds are
forecast. Winds will settle down and will range from northwest
to north around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible on Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hickman