Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220652
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
252 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is possible over Michigan this morning and again late this
evening. Any accumulation will be light and mainly on grassy
surfaces.

- Cool and dry this weekend with lows well into the 20s.

- More rain anticipated late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Increasing WAA is now well underway just to our north in the right
entrance region of a 120+ kt upper jet. Active portion of the front
is generally in the 850-700mb layer which (as expected) is setting
up just barely north of our CWA. Our MI counties may get clipped
with some light precip later this morning as suggested by some of
the latest hi-res models but this will likely be after sunrise with
temps near freezing. Impacts are unlikely (despite wet-bulb cooling
likely supporting mostly snow) due to warm ground, high sun angle,
and marginal temps. A break in precip is expected around midday into
the early evening as warm front lifts north and low levels remain a
bit too dry/stable in the warm sector to support more than an
isolated sprinkle. Midlevel shortwave and associated weak frontal
wave then pass through the area overnight. The midlevel wave is very
subtle/weak and the best moisture remains locked well to our south.
Some light precip is anticipated but certainly nothing widespread or
heavy. Thermal profiles suggest primarily rain south of the Toll
Road with some rain/snow mix (little/no snow accum) along and north.
Precip will end shortly after 06Z. There is some nonzero chance for
a secondary shortwave to touch off a few lake enhanced flurries
early Sat morning but profiles appear too dry and incoming airmass
is not quite cold enough so will hold dry Sat and Sun.

Otherwise, sharp temp gradient expected today with highs in the
mid/upper 50s south to around 40 north. Sat will be chilly with
highs only around 40F and lows dipping well into the 20s once
again. WAA starts to ramp up again late Sun yielding highs near
50F, particularly south of US-30.

Next system slated to eject out of the southwest CONUS on Monday.
This trough is much deeper and stronger with a 50+ kt LLJ pushing
much richer theta-e airmass into our area. Precip chances begin in
our NW early Mon with the initial theta-e surge though best precip
chances will not be until Mon night into Tue as main cold front
slowly crosses the area. Conditions don`t appear favorable for any
strong convection but a few isolated, embedded thunderstorms are
still not out of the question. There is also some concern for a
secondary frontal wave to develop on Tue and enhance/prolong the
rain. If this occurs we could be looking at some substantial rain
amounts but confidence is low based on bulk of 00Z guidance
suggesting a more progressive system in our area with better chances
for heavier rain well to our south and east. Will continue to watch
this potential though. After highs well into the 60s on Monday the
roller coaster drops once again for the middle of next week with
highs back in the 40s and lows below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR to prevail through most of the TAF period; however, as the
flow become northeast and eventually north, lower clouds will
spread into the area along with precipitation. Thermal profiles
initially indicate a rain/snow mix, but then rapid cooling
supports just snow after 03Z. GFS isentropic 295K shows a rapid
change to downglide by 06Z, so precipitation should end
quickly. The 03Z 2SN -SHSN may end before 06Z,

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Skipper


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