Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242058
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
358 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain and sleet accumulations expected prior to the
  onset of snow this evening. Ice accumulations from a then to
  over a quarter inch are expected, mainly south of a North
  Platte through Atkinson line.

- Potential for thunderstorms early this evening, mainly south
  of a North Platte through Broken Bow line. Storms may produce
  isolated wind damage, large hail, and heavy downpours.

- A large band of heavy snow is expected across southwest into
  central and north central Nebraska. Blizzard conditions,
  strong north winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts in excess of 50 mph
  to produce whiteout conditions in blowing and drifting snow
  tonight through Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Tonight, a closed upper low will develop across southwest Kansas
this evening and track toward north central Kansas overnight.
Meanwhile, deep surface low pressure near 980mb in southeast
Colorado will track into north central Kansas overnight. As the
arctic cold front advances quickly southeast this evening, rain
and evening thunderstorms will develop ahead of the advancing
cold front. Bufkit soundings support up to a six hour period of
freezing rain or sleet prior to a transition to snow behind
the front. Ice accumulations to a quarter inch or more are
possible east of a North Platte through Atkinson line with a
tenth of an inch or less to the west. This could create impacts
to roadways and also power lines as north winds increase to 20
to 35 mph this evening.

Heavy snow and blowing snow will be the major impact behind the
front overnight through Monday. With deep surface low pressure
off to our southeast, northerly winds will quickly increase
to 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible later tonight
through Monday evening. These strong winds will diminish Monday
night. This will result in widespread blowing snow with white
out and blizzard conditions. Due to the convection nature of
this system, snowfall rates may range as high as 1 to 2 inches
per hours this evening, and around 1 inch per hour later tonight
through Monday morning.

As for the heavy snow potential, confidence is high that the
heaviest snow will occur over portions of southwest into north
central Nebraska. The heavy snow band has shifted further east
as forecast by the latest mesoscale and deterministic models.
The highest snowfall totals from 6 to 10 inches are now
forecast mainly east of an Imperial through Ainsworth line, with
2 to 5 inches to the west. Although snowfall amounts will be
less across the west, all of western and north central Nebraska
should prepare for blizzard conditions tonight through MOnday
night.

The system will exit the area late Monday night. Snow remains
likely across the east, while ending across the west. Winds
will remain strongest from 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph
Monday evening, diminishing to 15 to 35 mph overnight. This will
leading to areas of blowing snow.

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for all of western and
north central Nebraska beginning 00Z tonight, except Sheridan
County, where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect. The
warnings remain in effect through 06Z Tuesday near and west of
Highway 83, while continuing though 12Z Tuesday across the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

On Tuesday, Patchy blowing snow is expected mainly east of
Highway 83. Skies will become sunny. Highs will only reach the
mid 20s northeast, low 30s central areas, to upper 30s far
southwest.

Snow cover will have a large affect on high temperatures
Wednesday through Friday. The forecast does show this, with
highs moderating into the mid 30s to upper 40s Wednesday, low
40s to mid 60s Thursday and Friday.

An upper level ridge will build into the region Wednesday through
Friday. An upper trough will move into the western U.S.
Saturday with zonal flow across the region. A slight chance for
showers returns Friday night into Saturday across the northwest.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue across all of western
and north central Nebraska this afternoon, impacting both KLBF
and KVTN. Areas of patchy fog with some freezing drizzle has
developed resulting in reductions to visibility below 3SM.
Anticipate these conditions to persist through the valid TAF
period. A mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet are all
possible ahead of the frontal passage with a transition to snow
expected as temperatures quickly fall behind it later this evening.
Additionally, northeast winds will become breezy this evening
before backing towards the northwest, strengthening even
further. Widespread gusts of 30 to 45kts is expected to continue
overnight into Monday. Will rely heavily on observations and
radar trends in the coming hours as future amendments are
possible given a degree of uncertainty on the start and duration
of the mixed precipitation ahead of a complete transition to
snow.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ004-
094.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Monday night for NEZ004.
Blizzard Warning from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 1 AM
CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ005-022>025-035>037-056>059-
069>071-094.
Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
for NEZ006>010-026>029-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken


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