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000
FXUS64 KLIX 141819
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
119 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Current forecast appears to be in good shape based on current obs,
so only minor tweaks were needed and mainly to the sky cover. Mid-
to high-level clouds continue to develop over northern portions
the forecast area in response to a shortwave trough/upper jet
streak over the Lower MS Valley. These clouds will mainly affect
areas along and north of I-10 before eventually clearing out from
NW to SE late in the afternoon as the jet streak progresses
downstream of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Southerly winds today will slowly bring dew pt temps into the 60s
by late today. Winds will also begin to rise to around 10mph by
the start of the work week. As temps climb into the 80s over the
next several days, the continued relatively dry conditions coupled
with a light brz will keep ambient conditions feeling
comfortable. The only other element seen is fog. There is a weak
signal for radiation fog for Sunday morning. This will only be
over stagnant water areas since that will be the best available
moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Monday morning is showing a much better signal for fog as the low
levels decouple and dew pt temps should be well established in the
60s. Even though the best conditions for development is west of the
area, there is still an adequate radiation fog signal here or at
least the northern half of the area where it is most likely to
decouple.

There is not a lot of change with regards to the next frontal system
as it should move into east TX and stall as it feels the pull of the
next front getting organized to the north. This first front will be
supported by the upper low coming ashore the Cali coast. This upper
low will eventually buckle the subtropical jet and couple with it.
As the low opens up and moves NE, the winds go parallel to the sfc
cold front through the column. This is what will cause the front to
stall(basically no more forcing). But the sh/ts that develop from
this front will continue to move eastward away from the front but as
it approaches our area, there will be no sfc support and weakening
upper level support. This should cause the sh/ts to begin weakening
as well especially along the southern portion of this line. So, even
if there are a few sh/ts that make it here by Tue or Wed, it won`t
be much. Another strong cold front is advertised to move into the
area by the end of next week. There are spacial and temporal
differences in the global suites but they all agree on the tangible
aspects of this front, the most notable is the thermal gradient
associated with this front. The GFS is fastest with this feature
bringing it through Sat while the Euro is slowest bringing it
through Sun. The upper support for a sfc low development will be
associated with the coupling of the polar and subtrop jets with a
sfc low developing over the west central gulf by late Sun. This is
very common with deep upper troughs, so it does seem to be
reasonable. The thing that is not, is the placement of sh/ts. The
GFS would seem to be following what would typically happen during
these scenarios, but we all know there a lot of things that don`t
always go the typical way. So we will have to see how this unfolds
through time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR this afternoon with a S wind 8-12 kt, gusting to just under
20 kt. The south wind will weaken within a few hours following
sunset and generally remain between 4-8 kt through much of the
night. However, stronger radiational cooling across the inland/northern
terminals (e.g., MCB, HDC, BTR) may decouple winds at the surface
and yield patchy fog toward daybreak Monday morning. Restrictions
would likely be MVFR but cannot rule out a brief 1-2 hour period
of IFR, especially at MCB, at or just before 12Z. VFR and S winds
5-10 kt can be expected on Monday.

Outlook (Monday night-Wednesday night)...Forecast model soundings
show a gradual increase in low level through the week owing to
the persistent southerly flow around high pressure that is
anchored to our east. While conditions look to many be VFR, the
potential for MVFR CIGs, including stratus overnight and stratocu
during the morning, increase each day.

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Southerly winds around 10kt will be established over all marine
areas today into Sunday. These winds will remain this way through
the week possibly getting up to 15-20kt from mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  60  82  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  63  82  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  62  78  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  57  81  62  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRK
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...JRK
MARINE...TE