888
FXUS63 KLMK 281355
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
955 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Warm and breezy weather continues, with gusts of 20-25 mph out
    of the southwest at times on today.

*   Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
    A few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall
    will be possible.

*   Additional showers and thunderstorms possible late next week,
    though confidence in detailed timing remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast remains on track this morning. Minor tweaks were made to
the temperatures (adjusted slightly warmer) and sky cover based on
the latest observations and trends... Otherwise, expect another warm
and breezy day by late April standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
region.  Temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s across much of the
region.  Other than some high thin clouds moving through, no
significant weather is expected through sunrise.

For today, strong ridging over the eastern CONUS will continue while
an active weather pattern continues off to our west.  We`ll see
another breezy day today as the pressure gradient tightens up and
we`ll have a faster 850 hPa flow over the western half of the
region.  With afternoon mixing, we`ll see winds in the 10-15 mph
range with gusts of 20-25 mph at times.  This will also probably
lead to a dry air mixdown event where afternoon dewpoints decrease
significantly.  Afternoon highs will be in the 79-84 degree range.

For tonight, ridge axis will shift to the east as a slow moving cold
front pushes toward the region from the west.  A few showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible over our far NW counties
toward dawn Monday.  Lows tonight will be in the 60-65 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mature mid-latitude cyclone will wrap northeastward over the Upper
Midwest on Monday, dragging a weakening cold front into the Lower
Ohio Valley Monday evening and Monday night. Ahead of this boundary,
Monday morning will likely start off dry for most. Weakening
convection may attempt to push into the far western CWA around
daybreak, but will likely not approach the I-65 corridor before
dissipating. An upper level shortwave trough and the effective sfc
boundary continue to progress eastward, and renewed convective
development appears likely during the mid to late afternoon hours in
portions of central KY and southern IN. We will see increased
synoptic scale ascent along the frontal boundary, also beneath the
right entrance region of a SW to NE oriented jet streak over the
Great Lakes. Some modest destabilization should allow convection to
strengthen Monday afternoon and evening, though overall
destabilization will be limited by weak lapse rates aloft and
possibly cloud cover. Deep-layer shear will also be marginal at
around 30 kts. At the very least, a few stronger storms capable of
gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible.
The 28.00Z CSU machine learning severe weather forecasts for Mon/Mon
night feature low (5-10% or less) probabilities for wind in
relatively small portions of KY.

With the potential for a bit more early day sunshine, temperatures
will top out in the low/mid 80s east of I-65 Monday afternoon. Highs
of 75-80 F are expected west of I-65.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak Monday evening and
overnight as convection evolves eastward across the region. Rain
likely lingers into Tuesday morning, especially for the eastern half
of the CWA. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to around an inch will
be possible through Tuesday, though some communities could see a bit
more than an inch (depending on convective evolution). Tuesday
afternoon and evening will feature a drying trend with temperatures
topping out in the low/mid 70s in the Bluegrass and mid/upper 70s
along and west of I-65.

Tuesday night into Thursday will feature amplifying ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley. Will lean toward a warmer and relatively dry
solution in the forecast for this time frame, though forecast
confidence drops off Thursday and beyond. Large model spread and run-
to-run consistency issues remain for late next week and next
weekend. Confidence is increasing in warm and dry conditions for
midweek with highs in the 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening, though rain
chances have been lowered for Thursday. An overall slower trend for
a storm system over the Plains could help keep active weather
confined to the Plains and Midwest through the daytime period of
Thursday, but confidence in detailed timing remains low.

A strengthening storm system over the central CONUS will eventually
bring a period of showers and stormy weather to the Ohio Valley, and
this is most likely around the Friday-Friday night time frame at
this time. Rain chances do linger into the weekend, but the details
will need time to come into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 737 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  For
today, look for VFR conditions with breezy southwest winds.  Winds
will generally be 9-13kts with occasional gusts of 19-23kts.  Winds
will diminish toward sunset and then will likely back to the
south/south-southeast for the overnight period.  High clouds will
stream into the region from the west tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MJ