National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLUB 201859
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
159 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Satellite and radar imagery are telling the story this afternoon
showing a clear mid/upper level trough moving eastward across New
Mexico with lift out ahead of it resulting in showers and
thunderstorms now almost entirely east of the I-27 corridor. Will
have to watch the area between the western edge of precip and the
trough itself for any additional attempts to precipitate late this
afternoon, but by 00Z only the eastern third of the forecast area
should be under any threat for showers and storms, and by 03Z all
meaningful lift should be east of the forecast area. The NAM and
some hi-res models appear to be exhibiting their bias toward light
QPF amounts associated with moist low levels as digging into the
models reveals no lift in the post-03Z period strong enough to
result in additional shower activity. In fact, with the trough
shifted east of the area by then there should be mid/upper level
subsidence. Will thus remove mentionable PoPs and run with a dry
forecast. However, low level moisture will remain in place through
the night and much of Sunday before being eroded from the north and
northeast. This will again result in cool temperatures tomorrow,
although without the precipitation there will be a noticable uptick
in 24 hour delta-T relative to this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

More pleasant weather is expected to return early next week as
surface high pressure moves in from the northwest. A building upper
ridge along with southwesterly winds will likewise increase
temperatures into the mid 80s by Tuesday. The pattern begins to
shift on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the area. Model
agreement remains somewhat poor at the moment. In short, the GFS and
its ensemble mean are faster with the frontal progression and
upstream upper trough than the ECMWF and its ENS mean. At this time,
both models generally keep thunderstorm activity to the east on
Wednesday. Thursday looks to be the more favorable day as the
aforementioned trough axis moves over the area along with a 40-50 kt
LLJ, both of which will both provide good forcing parameters. Timing
will be key as if the trough passage occurs during the late
afternoon/early evening hours, severe weather would be more likely.
In any case, greatest chances appear to be off the Caprock and the
latest PoP forecast reflects this. Uncertainty remains into next
weekend as another broad upper low will move into the Mountain West
and may continue to bring unsettled weather to our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across the forecast to
clear faster than expected with improved TAFs relative to that
element. MVFR ceilings should hang around through much of the
TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07