Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271917
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The stationary front is currently bisecting the FA from northwest
to southeast. The only distinct temperature difference associated
with the front is temps near 60F across our southern zones and low
40s/upper 30s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Stratus
across our northwestern zones has given way to stratocumulus. Precip
chances across the FA are still extremely low, but an isolate shower
or two may still be possible along the main frontal boundary if
enough surface heating can be attained before an upper level
shortwave trough moves overhead. This would warrant keeping the sub
20% pops in the forecast.

The stationary front will become a cold front this evening as the
aforementioned upper shortwave currently over northeastern New
Mexico moves across the region. Winds will be light and mostly out
of the east behind the front and will become variable after midnight
as surface high pressure moves in from the northwest. Winds will
quickly become south to southwesterly around 10-20 mph after sunrise
tomorrow thanks to surface lee troughing. Southerly winds with an
overhead ridge will allow highs to warm into the 70s area wide
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

We will see a return to a more early spring like pattern with warmer
temperatures, stronger winds, drier conditions, and elevated fire
weather concerns. Broad upper level troughing will spread over much
of the central CONUS this weekend as a southern stream trough dives
south along the California coast. A northern stream trough will
attempt to send a cold front into the area on Saturday but this
front is not expected to make much headway onto the caprock. The
digging trough along the west coast and upper level ridging overhead
will favor surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis through Monday. This
will push temperatures well above seasonal averages mostly due to
breezy downsloping winds each afternoon.

A pattern change will occur beyond Monday as the trough off the
California coast moves inland across the southwestern US. A northern
stream trough will send a cold front through the area this time from
late Monday through early Tuesday. As the southern stream trough
approaches the area Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances will
be unfavorable for the region with this trough having a strong
positive tilt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. There is a low chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms near PVW between 22-02Z. If a
storm does affect PVW this biggest hazard will be wind gusts up
to 35 knots.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51


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