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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210940
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
440 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough now in central Texas, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft.  The
trough brought much-need rain to the area, mainly the Permian
Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains.  MRMS came in w/estimates of over
4 1/4" in some parts of the Permian Basin, and the Colorado River is
even responding this morning.

Today, surface winds will veer a little more to easterly, and
upslope flow may kick off a few showers south of I-20 this morning.
Convection south of the border may cross over into the Presidio
Valley/Big Bend Area through Monday afternoon.  Despite being on the
backside of the trough today, stratus will be slow to scatter out,
and highs today will be a poignant ~ 20-22F below normal.
Fortunately, this will be the coldest day this forecast.

Tonight, surface winds continue veering, and return flow resumes.
This, as well as lingering stratus, will inhibit efficient
radiational cooling, keeping overnight minimums ~ 5F below normal.

Monday, a respectable rebound is in order as an upper ridge starts
building in from the west, and stratus finally clears out.
Thicknesses jump considerably, warming afternoon highs to only an
average of ~ 5-7F below normal.  Fortunately, the rest of the
forecast is more befitting for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tuesday sees the heat continuing to build as mid-level ridging
continues to become better positioned over the southern Great
Plains. Widespread upper 80s and lower 90s are anticipated for the
majority of the region, some 5-10 degrees above normal. Heading into
Tuesday night, a weak cold front moves into northern portions of the
area. This front is aided in its advance by a weak disturbance in
the southwesterly flow over the region and by a secondary trough
across the Midwest. Unfortunately, this cold front does little to
overall temperatures with afternoon highs on Wednesday only a few
degrees cooler than Tuesday. Our next weather system moves into
SoCal late Wednesday and proceeds into the Four Corners by Thursday
afternoon. Lee troughing ahead of this system should push the
dryline into portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
aiding in the return of at least a low thunderstorm chance for areas
along and east of the dryline. Temperatures remain in the 80s and
90s overall with the low-level thermal ridge remaining near the
region. Unfortunately, the trough lifts north into the central Great
Plains by Friday. The result of this means the dryline is pushed
back east of the majority of the region with overall dry weather
making its return. Temperatures remain warm and generally 5-10
degrees above normal to close out the week and beginning next
weekend, upper 80s and lower 90s for almost all.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

IFR/MVFR cigs and occasionally visibility will persist through
this afternoon before lifting/scattering out as surface winds
veer around to light return flow. The only terminal in question is
KFST, where cigs may lift to VFR tonight before dropping back to
MVFR near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  42  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  44  77  50 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   64  52  71  52 /  20   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            62  46  77  53 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  44  73  57 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  39  75  45 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  44  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   59  45  72  53 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     62  46  77  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44