683
FXUS62 KMFL 101729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
129 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHOIRT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Models show mid-level ridging centered across SoFlo gradually been
flatten as a shortwave trough and associated sfc low migrate over
the SE US. This will keep SoFlo in the warm sector of the system,
with warmer than normal low temps continuing tonight. For
Saturday, very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface
flow are expected, with afternoon highs again in the low to mid
90s. Heat index values will hit low 100s. Later in the afternoon
and evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across
the area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach
County (30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of
South Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out, as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate
lapse rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of
effective bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East
Coast. The primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop
would be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Long range solutions depict a frontal boundary moving across the
state on Sunday, with the decaying boundary stalling just to the
south of the peninsula. Drier and a little cooler air will descend
upon the area in the wake of the FROPA, with afternoon highs
remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.

Models show fair agreement in having the remnants of the boundary
gradually retrograding and pushing northward across SoFlo through
mid week. In response, winds gradually shift to a more SE flow on
Monday, and SSW by late Wednesday into Thursday. There should be
enough moisture filtering in the low levels for a few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially along sea breeze
boundaries.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to continue, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices may
reach or surpass 100 across much of SoFlo.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR should prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Winds will become generally SW in the 10-14kts range with gusty
periods through 00Z, then becoming light again by 05-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Moderate to fresh SSW winds will gradually shift W by Saturday as
a cold frontal approaches the area. The Atlantic waters will
likely reach small craft exercise caution criteria late this
evening into tonight. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the
region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach
coastline for the rest of today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore
over the weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic
coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with
minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the
interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  94  74  90 /   0  20  10  10
West Kendall     73  95  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        75  95  74  92 /   0  20  10  10
Homestead        75  94  73  90 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  76  93  75  87 /   0  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  76  94  75  88 /   0  30  10  20
Pembroke Pines   76  97  74  92 /   0  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  73  93  74  88 /  10  40  10  20
Boca Raton       75  94  75  88 /  10  30  10  20
Naples           77  88  72  89 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...17
FIRE WEATHER...CF
AVIATION...17