718
FXUS62 KMHX 070701
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak
troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist
southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal
system will move through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored
offshore, troughing inland and mid level shortwave moving
through the Carolinas. Sct showers and iso tstms ongoing early
this morning over central NC, moving towards the coastal plain,
with additional activity beginning to blossom over the Gulf
Stream.

Today still looks to be a conditional severe weather day across
Eastern NC, with likely less coverage than yesterday, but a
more favorable environment. Convection may be ongoing right
along, or just off, the coast this morning associated with a
weak mid-level wave moving through. Expect there to be a brief
period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level
ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the
potential for subsidence. Strong heating of a moist boundary
layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg
this afternoon, while mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft
atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in
deep layer shear, the 25-35kt. Overall, the environment will be
more supportive of severe weather than yesterday, however,
modest subsidence plus questionable low-level forcing may limit
svr potential and coverage. The seabreeze will likely be the
primary focus for convective initiation. If/where thunderstorms
develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather. The
environment will support the potential for damaging winds and
large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid-level lapse rates
aren`t forecast to be particularly steep, but NW flow aloft will
increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing
the potential for hail development.

With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component,
low-level thicknesses will increase a bit and expect high temps
to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for the beaches and mid to
upper 80s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Any convection that develops should weaken by
late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level
forcing weakens. Convection likely pushing off the coast by
midnight. Another muggy and mild night with lows in the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek
as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist
southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the
week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. However this lack of precipitation will
be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An
approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area
Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back
to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend.

Wednesday...A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges
across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal
flow. At the surface SW`rly flow and increasing low level
thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and
low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially
along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability
will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing
compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won`t be
very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring
in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to
be the driest day out of the week so far.

Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again
redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across
the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment
for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with
hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped
up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast
to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest
thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon
and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this
change in mind, did increase PoP`s to likely on Thurs afternoon
and lowered PoP`s on Friday to SChc to Chc.

Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values
>1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level
lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more
widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon
and evening.

Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the
area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on
Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an
isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted
well offshore.

The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly
dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable
airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mix of VFR and IFR across the terminals early
this morning, with patchy stratus moving into the coastal plain.
Guidance indicating the chance for status is a bit lower than
last night but still around a 30-50% chance for MVFR cigs late
tonight, ~08-12Z, across western terminals, including PGV and
ISO. Probs for IFR is much lower but do jump up to 20-40%
briefly around daybreak ~10-12z. All terminals will have
potential for sub-VFR through 12z this morning. Expect
conditions to return to VFR near or shortly after 12z this
morning. VFR expected outside of sct showers or tstms, which may
impact terminals later this morning and this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most
part through mid- week outside of any shower or thunderstorm
each aftn/evening that impacts the area. Another round of sub
VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain
and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning
at some point on Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4
ft. SW/WSW winds 10-20 kt expected for most of today with seas
3-5 ft. Expect another surge 15-25 kt late this afternoon and
into tonight with strengthening thermal gradient. Given how
winds overachieved a bit Monday evening, went ahead with a SCA
for the central and southern waters late this afternoon into
tonight, with potential for a period of frequent gusts to 25 kt
along with seas building to 4-6 ft. May need to be extended into
the Pamlico Sound as well. Sct showers and tstms expected across
the waters today.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to
deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. Otherwise
15-20 kt SW`rly winds will continue across all our waters with
ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a
cold front approaches on Thursday SW`rly winds increase further
closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times
promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds
potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the
week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to
strengthening winds

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF