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000
FXUS62 KMLB 161333
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
933 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast remains on track for continued dry conditions and a
warming trend as high pressure extends from the Atlantic over
Florida. Easterly winds 5-10 mph this morning pick up to 10-15 mph
in the afternoon and could get a little gusty thanks to
enhancement from the sea breeze. These gusty winds and low
humidity will result in sensitive fire weather conditions in the
afternoon. Otherwise, the warming trend continues with afternoon
highs forecast to reach the M-U80s inland and L70-L80s along the
coast, under some high clouds and a bit of marine stratocu
streaming onshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 928 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds out of the
east 5-10 kts this morning picking up to 10-15 kts with gusts up
to 20 kts in the afternoon due to sea breeze enhancement, except
at LEE-DAB which top out around 10 kts, then settle back to 5-10
kts overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions continue under high
pressure. Winds easterly south of the Cape and southeasterly to
the north at 10-15 kts, except near the Volusia coast this morning
where winds start 5-10 kts then pick up to around 10 kts in the
afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet, picking up to around 4ft well offshore
late tonight. Dry conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure will remain in control over east central Florida
through Saturday, maintaining dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Fire weather sensitive conditions will exist today
as wind increase out of the east southeast 10-14 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Winds will decrease slightly Wednesday and Thursday
and become more southerly as ridge axis slips south across the
area and becomes stationary across south Florida late this week
and weekend. Min RH values will reach at or below critical levels
across the interior each afternoon, falling near 30% today north
and west of Orlando and 30-35% across all the interior Wednesday
through Saturday. Min RH values will hold between 40-50% near the
east coast. Very Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Warming Temperatures This Week and Remaining Dry...

Today-Tonight...Dry conditions will persist through tonight as a
high pressure ridge axis remains over the region. Forecast soundings
show an increase in upper level moisture through today, as well as a
slight increase in low level moisture (PW values ranging from 0.7-
0.8") into this afternoon. Locally, mostly sunny skies are forecast,
with some high level clouds streaming over the local area through
the day. Much like the last several days, rain chances remain out of
the forecast through tonight. Light and variable winds will become
east to southeast by mid-morning and increase to 10-15 mph, with
gusts up to 20 mph possible, especially along the coast into this
afternoon. Winds will start to decrease after sunset, becoming light
overnight. The warming trend continues today, with temperatures at
or slightly above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will
be in the low 80s east of I-95, and mid 80s west of I-95, with
upper 80s possible in the far western interior. Overnight lows
will be in the low 60s under clear to mostly clear skies.

Wed-Sun...Mid-level ridge extending from the Bay of Campeche NE
across the FL peninsula Wed will get flattened by southern stream
shortwave energy. A period of NW flow aloft should occur late week
as mid level trough develops over the SW Atlc. Fast zonal flow
(west to east) should develop Sun-Mon as broad troughing develops
over the eastern CONUS. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge axis
slips southward across the area Wed and reaches south FL Thu
where it will remain into the weekend. Some mid level energy will
cross the area Fri in the NW flow aloft, but dearth of low level
moisture argues against introducing any rain chances. The GFS
continues to produce a little QPF late Sat and Sun aftns across
EC FL which will be in a region of favorable low level convergence
on the north side of the ridge axis combined with late sea breeze
mergers. But have low confidence sufficient low level moisture
will exist so will keep the weekend dry for now.

The low level ridge axis should hold firm across south FL Thu thru
the weekend preventing any frontal passages and will promote a
south to southwest flow turning onshore near the coast each aftn.
Across the interior, max temps will warm into the upper 80s/near
90 Wed, and low 90s Thu-Sun with a few mid 90s possible. Daily
afternoon sea breezes will keep coastal communities a little
cooler in the low 80s Wed warming to the upper 80s Fri-Sun due to
a more delayed sea breeze onset.

Mon...Mid level troughing developing over the eastern CONUS will
help push a frontal boundary into the Deep South and could bring
our next best chance for scattered showers but also storms.
Current forecast has a weakening boundary oozing southward into
central FL so have drawn 40 PoPs across the north and 20 PoPs
across the south but timing uncertainties exist at this long
range. While many will welcome some rain, it may also come with a
risk of lightning strikes which could spark brush fires given the
dry antecedent conditions. This will be an ongoing concern as we
enter our peak fire season prior to the onset of the wet season.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  60  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  64  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  64  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  63  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  86  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  64  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Haley/Leahy/Chamhitt